The Hobart Statesmen will host the Dickinson College Red Devils in their respective season openers this weekend. This game will also be the much anticipated debut of the newly remodeled Boswell Field at the Caird (H56) Center for Sports and Recreation. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 PM ET.
The Statesmen will be looking to avenge last season’s 26-3 bedeviling defeat to Dickinson in Carlisle, PA. The Red Devils literally ran all over the Statesmen on that day to the tune of 298 yards rushing. Although the Statesmen kept stand out WR Pat O’Connor in check, Hobart continually made mistakes, including a fumble and two unsportsmanlike penalties as they struggled to get anything going on offense. The Statesmen kept the game close in the first half and went into the break only down 7-3, but Dickinson came out in the second half firing on all cylinders and effectively put the game away with 32 seconds to play in the third quarter on a 19 yard QB Ian Mitchell TD run, his second of the day. The win was Dickinson’s tenth in the 19 game series between the two schools. The Devils have defeated the Statesmen twice in the past three seasons.
Although the Red Devils have lost several key players to graduation on offense including Mitchell (first QB in the history of the Centennial Conference to both rush for over 2,000 yards and pass for over 5,000 yards in his college career) and O’Connor (lead the Devils with 579 yards receiving and is Dickinson’s career leader for receptions with 167 for 2,548 yards and 18 TDs); they return the bulk of their defense (eight starters) which held Hobart to its lowest scoring output in over 15 seasons.
Key offensive players returning for the Devils includes SR RB Greg Lord who’s made a nice living running on the Statesmen defense the past two seasons. Lord lead all Dickinson rushers with 117 yards on 14 carries (one TD) in last season’s win over Hobart. Lord also racked up 108 yards on 19 carries (two TDs), albeit in a 28-21 loss, against the Statesmen in 2008. That said Lord wasn’t even Dickinson’s first (Mitchell) or second (SR RB Tim Smith who rushed for 606 yards on 123 carries and four TDs) leading rusher in 2009!
Given this stable of backs, not to mention Mitchell’s ability as a mobile QB, the Devils ranked 15th (out of 238) in the nation in rushing offense (243.8 YPG) last season. Needless to say I think Hobart can expect a healthy running game from Dickinson this Saturday – especially given the competition for the starting QB between JR QBs Rick Bowie, Jordan Kaufman and Ricky Martz is “wide open” per Dickinson Head Coach Darwin Breaux.
On defensive side of the ball the Red Devils are lead by LB Kevin Wood (leading tackler with 69 total stops, including 3 TFL) and SS Pat McNeal (66 tackles, one sack, four INTs). Also returning are LBs Pete Hamill (66 tackles, 6.5 TFL), Jack Connolly (60 tackles, 8.5 TFL), CB Andrew Fink (63 tackles) as well as DLs Corwyn Gordon (55 tackles, team high 9.5 TFL), Josh Harrison and Adam Farrell (six TFL, four sacks).
On special teams, Dickinson returns PK Gordon Craig (37 of 39 on PATs and 9 of 10 on FGs).
Keys to the game:
1. The Hobart Front Four – Given a new starting QB, Dickinson will likely play to its strength which will be to challenge the “brand new” Statesmen DL with a great deal of running plays. Last season the Red Devils called 44 running (72%) vs. 17 passing plays and I expect this year’s team will follow a similar strategy. If the DL struggles, expect a long day and busy day for the Hobart LB and DBs.
2. Ball control / limit mistakes – Hobart lost the turnover and the penalty battle in last year’s game costing the Statesmen a couple of scoring opportunities. Needless to say the Statesmen need to avoid handing over the ball to a Red Devil offense that’s prone to long, clock-killing drives. Last year, although they fought to the end, the Hobart defense eventually wore down in the second half due to losing the time of possession battle 17:26 to 12:34.
3. Build confidence on offense – Last season Vella only passed for 65 yards against a Dickinson secondary that gave up nearly 300 yards passing to Grove City the week before. Given Hobart will likely be challenged to move the ball on the ground against the Red Devils, Vella will need to be patient, make his reads and challenge Dickinson down field. That said I expect the Devils to blitz Vella constantly, so TE Matt Marsh and the Statesmen RBs will need to probably need to stay on their blocks or at least make some initial contact before releasing into the flat. The Statesmen OL and WRs will need to do a better job than they did last season – albeit some pundits claimed Vella was quick to give up on the pass and run the ball himself (he did lead all Statesmen rushers with 79 yards on 15 attempts). Having spoken directly to the JR QB a few weeks ago, I doubt this will be an issue. He said he’s matured a great deal and has a lot of confidence in his receivers (i.e., expect Muratori to have an active role in this game).
Prediction:
While I expect Dickinson to gain more than their fair share of rushing yards, I also think the Hobart offense will have a better passing day against the Devils this season. The Statesmen will be looking for pay back for last season so I am expecting Hobart to attack early and often on offense. That said I do expect this to be a slightly lower scoring game than those in recent years between these two teams. Ultimately if the Hobart defense keeps the Red Devil running game at bay in / near the red zone, I like the Statesmen’s chances to win the game.
That said I am picking Hobart to win their home opener (they were 4-0 at home last season) 24-14.
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