The #25 ranked and undefeated Hobart Statesmen (4-0, 2-0) will host the United States Merchant Marine Mariners (2-5, 1-2) this Saturday for Homecoming at Boswell Field. The Mariners are a triple option team, meaning they run the ball on virtually every snap. This has enabled the Merchant Marine to rack up over 230 rushing yards per game, but they have struggled against strong defensive fronts. For example last Saturday the Rochester Yellow Jackets (2-3, 1-2) held the Mariners to under 130 yards rushing in a lopsided 45-16 win.
The Merchant Marine is lead by their JR QB Alex Coviello. A threat to pass and run, the Cape Coral, FL native ranks seventh in the LL in rushing yards per game and four TDs. Coviello rarely passes, but has completed 15 attempts for 234 yards and four passing TDs. Coviello's favorite target is JR WR Chase Dunn, who has six TD catches.
Another running threat for the Mariners is JR RB John-Leon Gosselin who ranks third in the LL with 104.7 rushing yards per game (which is also ninth in the LL in total offense). A load to bring down, Gosselin has accounted for two rushing TDs as well.
On defense the Merchant Marine is lead by SR LB Kevin Stapf who ranks first in the LL with 74 total tackles and second with 10.6 tackles per game. Still, a reason for all of the Mariner's work on defense is that they have been relatively porous against the run (191.4 yards per game allowed and 12 TDs) and the pass (205 yards per game allowed and 19 TDs).
That said I imagine Hobart won't have too much difficulty winning Homecoming this weekend. The Statesmen have won seven in a row over the Merchant Marine, dating back to 2004 when they joined the Liberty League. The real key to the game here is containing Coviello and Gosselin while exposing the Mariner's weak defense. The Merchant Marine has allowed over 30 points per game on the season and I expect Hobart to eclipse this mark early in the game.
I'll predict a 49-9 Statesmen win this Saturday, pushing them to 5-0 for the first time since 2006.
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ReplyDeleteHow does this Hobart team compare with the teams that went to five straight NCAAs? I list this year's stats, along with the better or next best performance going back to the start of the NCAA run in 2005. This year's team tops all of their predecessors except in passing yards per game and third down conversion percentage allowed:
ReplyDeletePOINTS PER GAME
2011: 38.2
2007: 35.5
POINTS ALLOWED
2011: 13.2
2009: 15.9
RUSHING YARDS PER GAME
2011: 235.5
2005: 181.9
PASSING YARDS PER GAME
2007: 265.8
2011: 197.8
TOTAL OFFENSE
2011: 433.2
2007: 430.2
TOTAL DEFENSE
2011: 246.2
2008: 293.9
3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS
2011: 56%
2009: 45%
3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS ALLOWED
2005: 28%
2011: 31%
SACKS/SACKS ALLOWED
2011: 15/3
2007: 24/17
Awesome info Ted! One minor correction is I assume the 2009 references must be for 2008 given Hobart missed the '09 playoffs after a 6-3 season.
ReplyDeleteI just compared 2011 to the next best performance from 2005-10, so in some of those categories, the 09 team was next best, even though they didn't qualify for post-season.
ReplyDeletewell my buddy Rossi still says "yeah, but it's only 4 GAMES!" so hard to come away with a fair comparison to teams from the past that played 9 (or more if they were playoff teams). That said I do think given the remainder of the schedule that the stats should remain in the same ballpark, but time will tell...
ReplyDelete