The Hobart Statesmen (3-0, 1-0) look to capture first place in the Liberty League (LL) standings this Saturday in Schenectady, NY against long time rival, Union College (2-3, 2-0). Union struggled opening the 2011 with three straight losses the season losing their first three games surrendering fourth quarter leads against Salve Regina (2-3) and Utica College (2-2) and after committing five turnovers against Empire 8 rival Ithaca College (3-1).
That said the Fighting Dutchmen have been undefeated in conference play, holding off a determined Rochester squad (1-3, 0-1), 41-34, and overcoming an 11 point deficit to triumph over WPI (1-3, 1-1), 34-31, on a last second 22 yard Adam Henry field goal.
Hobart defeated Union 41-35 in a thrilling 2OT game last season which saw then SO QB Nick Strang account for six touchdowns, tying the school record for (five) passing TDs and running in the game winner. In spite of last year's win, Statesmen have historically not been able to solve for Union and have not posted back-to-back wins against their long-time rivals since the 2003-4 seasons. All time, the Dutchmen hold a 42-50-2 edge over Hobart (not including a 30-20 victory by the Statesmen in 2007 due to NCAA sanctions).
Union's strength is on offense where there they are lead the LL with the #1 ranked passing attack. The Dutchmen's passing game has accounted for 267.4 YPG and 11 passing TDs. SR QB Andrew Connolly leads the LL in passing efficiency (81 completions on 136 attempts with only five interceptions in five games for a 161 rating).
Connolly's key target is SR WR Justin Gallo who ranks #1 in receiving yards per catch (21.7), per game (156) and receiving TDs (9) in the LL. Gallo also ranks #2 in the LL for all purpose yards and #3 in scoring. For those of you wondering, this is the same Gallo who racked up 246 receiving yards on eight receptions for three (long) TDs against an otherwise helpless Statesmen secondary in 2009.
On defense the Dutchmen are lead by JR LB Noah Joseph with 9.8 tackles per game - good for fifth in the entire LL. That said Union has struggled a great deal against the pass, ranking last in the LL allowing 232.8 YPG and eight TDs to date.
Keys to the game:
1. Ground Gallo - Union's #1 passing receiving threat hasn't won back-to-back LL Offensive Player of the Week awards this season for nothing. He is an explosive receiver that has racked up 409 yards and six TDs in his career against the Statesmen defense(!).
2. Confound Connolly - The Dutchmen's offense centers around the SR QB from Foxboro, Mass who was undefeated against Hobart until last year's shoot out. Although he lacks the ground attack from graduated Chris Coney, Connolly has more than enough confidence based on prior outings to feel like he can light up the Statesmen "D".
3. Finish - After attending the 2009 Hobart-Union game in person I can say from first hand experience that the best team isn't always the winner in these match ups. That day I witnessed a Statesmen team absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage only to see a fumble on the goal line, then the three consecutive Connolly to Gallo TD passes, keeping Hobart from a 28-0 halftime lead. Last season it was the Statesmen who threw Union a curve ball starting Strang for an injured Doug Vella, which the Dutchmen eventually solved for in the second half, picking off the rookie QB four times. That said, the Union defense finally folded late - which we've seen at least twice so far this season - to Strang in 2 OT.
Prediction:
When I predicted Hobart to go 6-2 at the beginning of the season my guess was Hobart would lose at least one league game. They have not run the table in the LL since 2004, but after their dominating start to the season, perhaps this is the year they do it again?
While I predicted Hobart to win a hard fought 28-24 contest last Sunday night on "In the HuddLLe", I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go either way. Hobart's defense has been very strong to date, only allowing 9.7 PPG, 1 passing TD and only 100 YPG through the air; which points to a tough day for Union.
If the Statesmen defense continues at their current pace, Union won't stand a chance. That said Hobart's offense took a step backwards in the SLU game given the weather and generally playing poorly (three first half turnovers) overall. The weather this weekend in Schenectady looks pretty good, but you never know in these match ups.
I am hoping for Hobart to continue to 4-0 but wouldn't necessarily be surprised if Union pulled off the upset much like they did under very similar (1-3 coming into Geneva vs. 4-0 and ranked Hobart) circumstances to 2008.
Game time is 1 PM ET and you can tune into WEOS for Ted Baker's, or my ITH co-host Frank Rossi's, call on www.weos.org or www.ustream.tv respectively.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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