The #12 ranked Hobart Statesmen will make their longest road trip of the season Saturday when they travel down I-90 to face the WPI Engineers in Worcester, Mass for a 12 PM kickoff. The addition of Springfield to the Liberty League (LL) in the offseason necessitated Hobart’s return trip to Worcester for scheduling purposes.
Last season the (then #25 ranked) Statesmen would score quickly off of two WPI mistakes in the first five minutes of the game en route to a 27-13 halftime lead. The second half would literally become a “Halloween whiteout” as a heavy snowfall hit all of New England (including my hometown of Avon, CT shutting down power and forcing my friends and family back home to head to hotels given the large number of downed power lines). Neither team could do much in the snowy conditions in the second half and the Statesmen hung on for a 27-13 win.
This weekend’s game is a one featuring programs headed in different directions. The Statesmen (4-0, 1-0) are coming off another big win. WPI (1-3, 0-1), while impressive in Week 1 vs. former New England Football Conference (NEFC) champion Curry College, has lost three in a row, the last two games by a combined score of 59-20.
The Engineers biggest struggles have come on offense where they rank seventh in the Liberty League (LL) in scoring (14.5 PPG), rushing offense (averaging 104.2 YPG) and are last in the conference in total offense (248.8 YPG). WPI’s six offensive TD’s scored in four games is tied for last with Saint Lawrence (0-4, 0-1). Defensively WPI has fared better and is in the middle of the pack, ranked fourth overall in rushing and total defense allowing 160.8 and 344.2 YPG, respectively.
Part of WPI’s struggles is a quarterback competition between JR QB Johnny Antonopoulos and SO Jacob Grills that does not seem to have resolved. Neither QB has been terribly effective with Antonopoulos and Grills completing only 44.4 and 45.7 percent of their passes and throwing for a paltry 67 and 94.2 YPG average. Another issue has been the running game. SO RB Zach Grasis rushed for 232 yards in the Engineers first two games, but has only gained 59 in the two games since (in the last game vs. RPI Grasis had three carries for seven yards which makes we wonder if he left the game due to an injury?).
Where WPI does have some playmakers however is on the defensive side of the ball. SR LB Shane Grogan is first in the LL in total tackles with 43 (10.8 TPG) and five tackles for a loss (TFL). SR DL Joe Everett is fourth in the LL with 7 TFL (all seven coming against local rival Worcester State which earned him a Defensive Performer of the Week nod by the LL in Week 2), and forced one fumble.
Keys to the Game:
1. Run. The. Ball. – Hobart’s passing game was fairly mediocre last Saturday with Hobart SR QB Nick Strang having one of, if not, his worst career start, completing only six of ten for 77 yards and three interceptions (INTs). By contrast the Statesmen ground out an impressive season high 303 rushing yards vs. the Mariners and should follow the same script against WPI.
2. Creating (and avoiding) turnovers – WPI shares a dubious distinction with Hobart in that they are second to last in the LL with a -4 turnover margin. Fortunately most of the Statesmen’s turnovers haven’t really come back to haunt them, other than allowing Utica and USMMA some hope until the offense settled and put those games out of reach by 19 and 20 points, respectively. Grills and Antonopoulos have combined for seven INTs and will likely need to pass the ball against the Hobart defensive front that is allowing only 85.5 rushing YPG (the Statesmen's rush defense stats were worsened after taking a 35-6 lead then allowing around 180 rush yards to the USMMA in the fourth quarter with the reserves in). This will make the Engineers susceptible to sacks (they’ve allowed 10 so far this season) and interceptions by the Statesmen secondary (JR CB Connor Garrett made a particularly spectacular one last Saturday against the USMMA).
3. Discipline – The Statesmen have looked great, if not dominant at times this season, but have yet to play a complete and disciplined game. The very high (30) number of penalties (not to mention what were mostly self-inflicted turnovers), particularly personal fouls, has to stop for this team to win a championship and advance (deep) into the playoffs. Aside from the final score of Saturday’s game, the stat I will watch most closely is to see if Hobart can avoid their current 73.2 YPG of penalties. By contrast, Statesmen opponents have been flagged for only 41.5 YPG.
Prediction:
Hobart is 8-0 all time vs. WPI winning those contests by an average score of 35-19. Fortunately the forecast for this weekend in Worcester is free of snow, but there is a (40%) chance of rain, and funny things can happen with a wet football. That said, while I expect the Engineers to give the Statesmen some trouble defensively, I can’t see the WPI offense being able to put up enough points to contend with Hobart.
I’ll take Hobart in another dominant win, 42-14.
Nice preview!
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