First off, thank you readers for visiting this site over 2,000 times this month. Last month was a record number of visits but September broke it a few days ago and cracked the 2k visits ceiling this morning.
Second, the #13 ranked Hobart Statesmen (3-0) will open their 2012 Liberty League (LL) slate against the United States Merchant Marine Academy Mariners (2-1) this Saturday at Homecoming on Boswell Field. Last season the Statesmen opened a huge 35-0 lead at halftime before cruising to a 42-14 victory at Kings Point. SR QB Nick Strang passed for 226 yards and two touchdowns (TDs) while a literal platoon of Hobart rushers racked up 161 rushing yards and two scores.
This year could be different however as the USMMA brings a stronger offensive team to the fore, scoring 27.7 PPG behind the second ranked LL rushing offense churning an impressive 308 YPG. The Mariners are tied with Hobart with 65 first downs on the season on offense but have allowed 11 more first downs than the Statesmen (49 vs. 38) on defense.
Leading the Mariner rushing attack is SR RB J.L. Gosselin with 284 yards on 51 carries and four TDs. SR QB Alex Coviello sat out the USMMA’s last game against rival SUNY-Maritime with a bad ankle and was spelled by SO QB Luke Stidham. The Baltimore native did well in his first collegiate start, gaining 189 total yards and scoring two rushing TDs against the Privateers (1-1).
On defense the Mariners are lead by SO DB Andrew Harmon with 20 tackles and FY CB Skyler Stone with a LL leading two interceptions. The USMMA defense has improved but began the season in a couple of shoot outs leading to their current 29.3 PPG scoring defense. Still the Mariners boast the third best rushing defense in the league, allowing only 131.3 YPG and three rushing scores over three games.
Where the USMMA appears susceptible is via the air. The Mariner defense has allowed 208 passing YPG and seven TDs so look for offensive coordinator Kevin DeWall to test this unit.
Keys to the game:
1. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object – The Mariners biggest strength (their vaunted 300+ YPG rushing attack) will collide with Hobart’s (allowing a paltry 37 rushing YPG). The Mariners are ranked second in the LL in third down conversions, going 21 for 42 (50%) on the season. Hobart’s defense is the best in the league at stopping opponents on third down, only allowing 12 of 46 conversion (26.1%) attempts. Ultimately the winner of these battles along the line of scrimmage will win the game.
2. Get in the (red) zone – While this may seem obvious or redundant at first, stay with me. Hobart leads the LL in red zone offense going 12 for 14 (85.7%) scoring 10 TDs and two FGs. Why this is even more relevant is the Mariners have been terrible on defense in the red zone, allowing a league high eight TDs and two FGs. In fact, the USMMA defense has not made a single stop (opponents are 10 for 10) backed up inside their 20 yard line. Ironically Hobart has also allowed 100% of their opponents to score inside their 20 yard line, but here’s the rub: the stat is misleading because it has only happened once (last Saturday night Utica scored on a TD pass from the 16 yard line with eight seconds in the 3rd quarter out to pull within five points before Hobart blew the game open in the fourth).
3. Turnovers and ball control – The Mariners are -4 on the season which is tied for last in the league with WPI (1-2). Hobart’s not much better after last Saturday at Utica where they fumbled four times and lost three to the Pioneers defense, moving their turnover margin to -2. The reason this is important is giving the ball back to the USMMA would play to one of the Mariners key strengths. The Mariners have controlled the clock better than any team in the LL, averaging an impressive 35:44 time of possession average. While the Statesmen defense is athletic and deep, the Mariners could wear them down with long drives and keep themselves in the game by keeping Strang and (a likely quick strike) Statesmen offense on the side lines.
Prediction:
While I do suspect the Mariners to be better than a .500 team this season, they are 0-8 against Hobart since joining the LL in 2004. The average margin of Statesmen victories over this time period has been 24 points. That said I’ll take the Statesmen at home to outlast a stronger, but still vulnerable Mariner squad by the score of 35-14.
Kickoff is slated for 1 PM and the game will be on WEOS 89.7 FM (www.weos.org). Go ‘Bart!
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