Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Dickinson Review / Endicott Preview

The 12th ranked Hobart College Statesmen will make the first of three trips to the Boston area this weekend when they take on defending New England Football Conference (NEFC) Champion Endicott College on Saturday in Beverly, MA. The Gulls (0-1) are coming off a Week 1 20-17 loss to defending Massachusetts States College Athletic Conference (MASCAC) Champion Framingham State (1-0).

The Gulls outgained the Rams by over 150 yards and eight more first downs in the game but were upended by five turnovers, including four interceptions thrown by SR and Preseason All-America QB Drew Frenette. Otherwise Frenette had a solid outing passing for 292 yards and two TDs. The SR QB attempted 47 passes, so the Hobart DB and OLB coverage will really need to improve from this past weekend's performance of allowing Dickinson QB's to go 16 of 22 (72.7%) for nearly 200 yards.

Looking Forward in Reverse

Starting off, check out these photos from the Dickinson game that were posted by the DC SID (taken by SR QB Cole Ahnell's father). I thought this shot of one of SO PK Sean Kirshe's FGs came out pretty well:


The good news from last weekend is that Hobart clearly was the better squad. The size, speed and athleticism of the players in the program is definitely apparent and will likely be superior to any team they play in the regular season, at least. That said the youth of this year's team will mean some growing pains. Fortunately the aforementioned advantages will help the squad and potentially make opportunities for "new stars" to emerge.

The OL had their moments but there were times when handoffs were missed and SR QB Patrick Conlan's game seemed a bit off at times. It is clear though in seeing the game film his interception was more due to the right side of the line not picking up a blitz leading to Conlan being hit vs just making a bad pass. Check out this highlight reel (which had pretty sweet ESPN FB music appended to it :) which was produced by the Centennial Conference. At about six minutes in they show all the key plays from the Dickinson game. 

It was interesting to see Hobart attempt about 22 passes in the first half alone, even while the running game was getting over 8 yards per carry - mostly blostered by SR FB Dominique Ellis53 yard TD. Ellis looked awesome Saturday and the rest of the backs from JR RB Connor Hartigan, JR RB Alex Furtado and SO RB Brad Burns all had some nice carries. Burns has a great forward lean and will continue to get better, especially if he can get more elusive and look to side step like Hartigan instead of trying to bowl people over.

SR WR Elvin Souffrant's 86 yard TD catch was a thing of beauty, from Conlan's throw to Elvin's catch and run. Hobart did leave some points on the table, as at least one TD pass was dropped in the end zone and Conlan's earlier interception was on the Dickinson side of the field and could have ended up in points if avoided.

SO PK Sean Kirshe looked good in the kicking game. The 39 yard FG would have been good from further out. Although he did miss on one kickoff, the rest were deep and would have set up the Hobart defense if the coverage was a little better.  Fortunately for the Statesmen, Endicott's  return game wasn't great against Framingham last weekend. To be fair however, the Rams may have just had a better coverage team than the Gulls' return one.

Defensively I thought the team looked very solid up front and in the LB corp JR Jacob Stanley had an excellent debut as a starting ILB. He also had a big special teams played when he killed a potential momentum builder for the Red Devils by blocking a FG early in the second half.

Scouting the Gulls

The challenge of this game is Endicott's strength is Hobart's current weakness. Still, Frenette showed he can be rattled into making mistakes and/or forcing throws. The key for the Statesmen will be to pressure him early on and not allow the passing game to get into a groove. Field position will also will be important, as Endicott has a couple of talented and experienced split ends in SR WR Nate Lewis (caught nine passes for 175 yards and one TD vs. the Rams) and JR WR Alec Matys (led the NEFC with 12 TD catches in 2013). The Gulls will try and spread out the Statesmen and force them into coverage mistakes.

Out of the backfield the Gulls have a solid runner / receiver in JR RB Spencer Walsh. He carried the ball 26 times against Framingham for 93 yards and added five receptions for 31 yards. He has good size standing 6' 215 lbs so Statesmen defenders better wrap up on initial impact.

On defense JR LB John Elnagger led the way with 11 stops against the Rams. SR LB Andrew Holfinger is another strong player who earned first team All-NEFC had a sack and a tackle for loss last Saturday.

Aside from the overall large size of their roster (they had 125 players in preseason camp), Endicott looks like their DL/DEs are smaller than the Hobart OL. On the flip side, the Gulls OL has good size, albeit their center JR OL Sam Rose is pretty stocky at 5' 7" (250). Endicott's OL did a good job containing the Framingham pass rush and only allowed one sack in that game. Five TFLs were made by the Rams defense, but for a small number of (negative) yardage.

Keys to the Game:
  1. Fluster Frenette / Control TOP - Frenette deserves the defenses' respect but it should be noted he's thrown seven interceptions dating back to last season's one and done playoff appearance. I am guessing he'll attempt close to 50 passes against Hobart Saturday which is more than twice the number throws the Statesmen had to defend against the Red Devils. In that case, I'd like to see the Statesmen forego airing it out 30 times and run the ball more. Endicott's pass defense limited Framingham to only 83 yards on 12 completions (out of 23 attempts). While I can't speak to Rams QB Matthew Silva's abilities or lack thereof (not to mention the Rams are more of an option team), there's a compelling case to run. The Gulls DL is undersized, case in point Ellis is the same size or bigger than most or all of their down linemen. In my opinion the best way to protect a young secondary is a great pass rush to sack Frenette and a great rush offense to keep him off the field.
  2. Turnovers / Field Position - This was mentioned above but this Endicott team has a ball control issue. If the Statesmen can force a handful of turnovers and/or avoid giving the Gulls short fields due to their own mistakes, special teams or otherwise, they'll be in good shape.
  3. New Surroundings, But A Familiar Foe - Endicott HC JB Wells recently brought in Tom Blumenauer to be his Offensive Coordinator. Coach Blumenauer coached against Hobart from 2010-13 when he was on the staff at Saint Lawrence. This familiarity should help Endicott somewhat with respect to knowing Hobart's defensive personnel and schemes, but it obviously gives the Statesmen staff a few hints on the type of strategy the Gulls could deploy on offense as well.
Prediction:

Frenette is likely the best QB the Statesmen will face barring the return to his SO form of now SR QB Connor Eck from Union College (who did have a nice game vs Ithaca last weekend). On Sunday night on "In The HuddLLe" I predicted 35-28 Hobart win over Endicott but that was before I saw the Framingham box score. I still like Hobart to come away with a win, but it may not be as close as I thought, especially if the Gulls turnover the ball. Guess we'll find out on Saturday. I'll be tuning in to WEOS to hear the game and we'll recap it with highlights Sunday night at 7:30 pm on ITH.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

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