The seventh / ninth ranked (more on this can be found here) and Liberty League Champion Hobart College will host Empire 8 Champion Ithaca College Saturday in the first round of the NCAA D3FB Championship playoffs at Boswell Field.
The Statesmen (10-0) haven’t played the Bombers (7-3) since the 2003 season, a 14-7 loss. Prior to that game, Hobart went 2-1 against Ithaca, winning 19-0 and 17-6 in 2000 and 2002, respectively (hopefully the fact it’s 2014, an “even year”, is a good omen). The 2000 win was a major turning point for the Statesmen program as Hobart had not beaten the Bombers since 1983 and were 1-22 against their Cayuga Lake neighbors until that game. That 2000 team would be Hobart’s first ever NCAA playoffs qualifier and wrapped up that season 9-2 overall, which tied the Statesmen’s highest win total in program history (set back in 1896) at the time. In spite of their proximity, this weekend’s match up will be the first time the two programs have squared off in the NCAA playoffs.
Ithaca is nursing their pride a bit after a failed FG attempt turned into a game winning TD in their season finale vs. arch rival SUNY Cortland (5-5). The play was picked up by ESPN and the Bombers’ loss was replayed to a national audience which probably didn’t help. Ithaca is a good, but tough, draw for the Statesmen in that they bring some interesting matchup challenges to the “Boz.”
Scouting the Bombers:
#7 SR QB Tom Dempsey – with a strong arm and smarts to boot, Dempsey is easily the best QB the Hobart defense will have faced all season. He’s passed for 2212 yards, going 205-303 (67.65%) with 21 TDs compared to eight interceptions (146.57 pass efficiency rating). The SR QB runs the spread very well and has multiple receivers who are all strong players.
#4 SR WR Vito Boffoli – leads Ithaca with 533 receiving yards and has scored five TDs. Boffoli had 100+ yard receiving games against Alfred and Buff State, but is primary a possession receiver. His longest catch on the season was for 37 yards in the Buff State game.
#40 SR FB Ben Cary – A stocky (6’ 225 lbs) blocking back, Cary is actually more of a receiving than rushing threat. He’s carried the ball only five times for 22 yards with a TD. By contrast he leads Ithaca with eight receiving TDs and has caught 43 passes for 370 yards. It’ll be important for whichever Hobart LB draws Cary in coverage keeps him in check.
#2 WR/RB Josh Oliver – a small (5’5” 160 lbs) but tough player, Oliver was a HS teammate of Hobart’s SR DE Tyre Coleman. Initially a receiver (12 receptions for 101 yards), Oliver has converted to RB after #33 FR RB Tristan Brown went down with an injury in the game vs. Salisbury. Brown is back, but he only carried four times for 12 yards against Cortland. Since he took over for Brown, Oliver has carried the ball 76 times for 299 yards (3.93 YPC), scoring two rushing TDs in Ithaca’s last three games. Oliver also primarily handles both kickoff and punt return duties for IC. He’s averaged 10.5 YPR on punts and 23.4 YPR on kickoffs, so look for the angle kick by SO PK Sean Kirshe to keep the ball away from Oliver.
#47 SR LB Marc Recio – similar to Oliver what Recio lacks in size (5’7” 195lbs) he makes up in gritty play. Recio leads the Bombers defense with 71 tackles, including 5.5 TFL.
#92 JR DL Schnayder Termidor – Ithaca’s best pass rusher, Termidor leads the Bombers with six sacks and 7.5 TFL. He’s forced two fumbles too, which Hobart will need to avoid given their recent turnover struggles.
#34 JR PK Max Rottenecker – handles kickoffs for the Bombers and averages 59.6 YPKO. He has gone five of seven on FGs with a long of 50.
#24 SR PK Garrett Nicholson – has gone seven of nine on FGs with a long of 33. Nicholson has kicked 28 PATs on 32 (87.5%) attempts.
Keys to the Game:
1. Protect the Football – The Statesmen have been their own worst enemy of late, turning over the ball nine times in their last two games. Ithaca is too good of a team to provide short fields and/or points too given the strength of their defense which allows 16.7 PPG and only 293 YPG.
2. Dump Dempsey – Hobart’s pass rush and its success in breaking up the spread will be critical. If Dempsey has time in the pocket he will pick apart Hobart’s pass defense which is not the Statesmen’s strong suit. The Bombers OL is very experienced with four SR and one JR starters, but they have allowed 21 sacks for -154 yards this season.
3. Home Sweet Home – The Statesmen are 7-1 in NCAA first round playoff games played at the “Boz” (8-1 if you count the 2003 ECAC bowl game where Hobart beat Norwich 34-18). The last time Hobart lost in the first round at home was back in 2002 against John Carroll. Hopefully the Statesmen have a bit of a chip on their shoulder given last year’s 27-6 loss to Saint John Fisher (also of the E8). An added bonus would be the possibility of hosting the winner of the Johns Hopkins (10-0) and Rowan (7-3) game if they can get by the Bombers. While the second round hosts won't be announced officially until Sunday, the bracket placement of Hobart points to them being the 2 seed, which would host.
Prediction:
Saturday will be a tough, physical game that will be won or lost in the trenches. Ithaca’s OL is seasoned but their drop back style of offense plays to Hobart’s defensive strengths of sacking the QB and hitting runners behind the line of scrimmage. On Sunday’s ITH I predicted the Statesmen would win the game 25-17, unless Ithaca is able to capitalize on the turnover issues that have plagued Hobart in recent weeks. My co-host Frank Rossi was more optimistic, picking the Statesmen to win 34-20.
I suspect we’ll see a good dose of running plays by Hobart who averages 224.6 YPG against a Bomber defense that allows 111.1 YPG. Something will give here and I’m hoping it’ll be the Statesmen controlling the clock and slowly grinding down Ithaca. Either way it should be a great game by two storied NYS programs lead by excellent coaching staffs. This is what the playoffs are all about.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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