Tuesday, November 4, 2014

SLU / LL Title Game Preview

So it’s come down to this weekend where the irresistible force meets the unmovable object. On the line for only the fourth time since 2004 is the Liberty League (LL) title in a winner take all game. Both teams have defenses ranked in the Top 10 nationally, so expect a low scoring, hard hitting affair.

Hobart (8-0, 5-0) boasts a strong scoring offense (34.5 PPG) while the Saints (7-1, 5-0) have the LL’s best scoring defense (11 PPG). The Saints offense averages 25.9 PPG is led by a strong passing attack (201.3 YPG) and a LL leading 17 passing TDs. Conversely the Saints are ball hawks, collecting a LL high 17 interceptions (tied for second nationally) while only allowing three passing TDs all season. The Statesmen defensive strength is against the run, having only allowed 87.3 YPG rushing and four rush TDs.

Last season the Statesmen raced out to 24-0 lead before cruising to a 37-7 win over the Saints in Geneva. Hobart held SLU to only 145 total yards and only allowing three of 17 third down conversions. The Statesmen led the all-time series vs. SLU with a 47-37-2 mark. Hobart last lost to the Saints in 2010 in a 24-21 decision that was the first win by SLU over Hobart since 1991.

Scouting the Saints: 

#6 SR QB Mike Lefflbine – the top rated passer in the LL, Lefflbine has a nearly 60% completion rate, going 142 of 237 for 15 TDs and only four INTs. Lefflbine is a mobile QB who is most comfortable in roll out and play action type of plays. While not overly quick, Lefflbine is mobile and has gained 176 rushing yards and scoring two TDs this season.

#72 SR OT Luke Lendaway – a SR Co-Captain, the VT native led an OL that gave up a LL low three sacks in 2013. This season the Saints OL has allowed eight sacks (or one per game) and who’s blocking has assisted SLU maintain a 35:33 TOP average.

#16 SO TE Mitch Gallagher – big (6’2” 225 lbs) and athletic, Gallagher is a match up challenge for Hobart. He is first in the LL with 581 receiving yards and tied for first with five receiving TDs. His counterpart is #86 SO TE Matt Gardiner who is also tall (6’3” 217 lbs) and has caught 26 passes for 294 yards and three TDs.

The “Goon Squad” – A trio of outstanding players in #1 JR Evan Lapice (34 tackles, four INTs including an 80 pick six last week vs. WPI), #4 SO James Holley-Grisham (46 tackles, seven INTs) and dual threat #3 JR Leondre Simmon (14 tackles, five INTs while also adding 10 receptions for 140 yards and four TDs on offense).

#15 SO LB Alec Dietsch – last year’s LL ROTY, Dietsch leads the Saints with 56 tackles. #55 SO DE Chyron Brown-Wallace – leads SLU with 12.5 TFL and seven sacks.

#30 SO PK Andrew Carvalho – Perfect and leading the LL in PATs with a 27-27 mark, Carvalho has struggled with FGs. He’s only four of seven and has a long of 36.

Keys to the Game: 

1. Win the LOS – To me this game is about how Hobart’s OL handles the Saints DL. I have no doubt the Statesmen DL and LBs will put pressure on Lefflbine because they’ll need to in order to avoid him being able to exploit a clear size advantage of SLU’s tall TE’s and WR’s vs. Hobart’s shorter OLB’s and DB’s. The Statesmen will need to be able to run the ball against SLU’s stout rush defense which only allows 114.3 YPG. The Statesmen average 267 YPG rushing, so something’s going to give here. I expect a heavy dose of SR FB Dominique Ellis and JR FB Christopher Holoman to wear down the Saints LBs.

2. Avoid Turnovers / Special Teams Mistakes - the Saints have made a living this season off of turnovers. SLU ranks fifth in the nation with a +17 turnover margin. The Saints also average nearly 20 YPR on kickoffs and Holley-Grisham averages over 16 YPR on punts. He took a WPI punt 52 yards to the house last Saturday in a 20-7 win in Worcester. The Saints have the best punt team in terms of Net/P (34.1 yards) in the LL.

3. Third Down – SLU has struggled on third downs in spots, only converting 35.5% vs. Hobart’s LL leading 48.5%. However, the Saints defense leads the LL allowing only 29.2% opponent conversions. If the Statesmen rushing game stalls in the cold, grass field at Leckonby Stadium, Hobart will need SR QB Patrick Conlan to take to the air and gain valuable yards. Last season the Statesmen only went three of 13 on third down but had enough success on first and second down to warrant only four punts in the game. Hobart went for it four times and converted twice, and may elect to attempt some fourth down plays, pending field position and weather conditions (currently showing high, but otherwise dry, 39 after a snowy Friday).

Prediction: 

I believe the first half will be a back and forth, lowing scoring affair. I do think the Statesmen offense will catch steam and pull away late in the third quarter to win the game 24-10 and capture a fourth straight LL championship.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!

PS - check back for quick update tmw once the NCAA East Regional Playoff rankings come out....

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