After listening to a replay of last Sunday's In The HuddLLe podcast, I wondered if I wasn't being a bit of a "downer" or too harsh a critic of the Statesmen defense? That said I wanted to take a closer look.
After four contests the Hobart defense is allowing 20.3 PPG, which is right in the middle of the LL (ranked fourth), pack. Not bad, but not great either. As a Top 25 team (the Statesmen are ranked tied for 15th in the AFCA Coach's Poll and 21st in the D3football.com Top 25), Hobart (4-0, 1-0) should be more formidable in my opinion than the stats show.
To be fair, there are a lot of new or first time starters across the front seven that probably just need time to gather the experience to be a more cohesive unit. Players like SO DE A.J. McFarlane, JR DE Brandon Ball, JR LB Almamy Conde, JR CB Daryl Scales, SO OLB Kai Brandford and FY LB Jedh Downey have done well as relative newcomers to their starting roles. SO DT Sean Moore has also looked good and could earn a starting job soon.
So am I being too critical?
With that in mind, I looked at the NCAA stat book (note there is some noise due to single game NESCAC teams and associated data so you can adjust the below around 2-5 spots). All of the below are out of the 244 teams in D3FB.
Hobart is currently (nationally) ranked:
46th in total defense (YPG)
66th scoring defense (PPG)
121st rushing defense (YPG)
36th in defensive pass efficiency
To put the above into context, #24/25 SLU (4-0, 1-0) is ranked:
3rd total defense
4th scoring defense
20th rushing defense
3rd in defensive pass efficiency
While it's true that SLU has more veteran squad, they also have played slightly easier slate than Hobart so far based on W/L record (Hobart's opponents are 5-10 while SLU's are 3-11).
My main concern are the rushing defense stats, especially given the USMMA (2-1, 1-0) is heading to Geneva averaging 375.7 YPG, which is currently number one in the nation. Those stats were bolstered however by a Rochester (1-2, 0-1) squad that may not win another game this season.
Taking a closer look at the rushing numbers the Statesmen have allowed:
195 yards and four TDs to Brockport (2-2) who has averaged 180.3 YPG (ranked 74th) since with an overall 12 total rush TDs
166 yards and one TD to Endicott (1-3) who has averaged 125.5 YPG (155th) and four TDs
99 yards and to Ithaca (1-2) who has averaged 35.3 YPG (242nd - that's not a typo) and zero rushing TDs on the season
175 yards and two TDs to Union (1-3) who has averaged 169.8 YPG (92nd) and seven TDs overall
One could argue that two of the above rushing TDs really aren't the defense's fault as the punt unit gave Brockport the ball at the one yard line in Week 1 and the offense gave Union the ball at the nine last weekend. Also, if you take the Endicott pick six from Week 2 off the board, Hobart's defensive allowed average drops to ~15 PPG, which is a considerable improvement.
Given the above, while the above rushing stats remain a concern, it appears as though the Statesmen defense is playing much better than I thought, especially considering the number of new starters.
There you have it, I stand corrected. I'll have a USMMA game preview up by Thursday at the latest.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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