The #15/21st ranked Hobart College Statesmen will host the United States Merchant Marine Academy Saturday at Boswell Field. Hobart (4-0, 1-0) and the USMMA (2-1, 1-0) are coming off Liberty League (LL) wins over Union (1-3, 0-1) and Rochester (1-2, 0-1), respectively.
The Statesmen have gone 12-0 since the Mariners and Hobart renewed their series back in 2004. USMMA went 4-0 vs. the Statesmen from between three games in the 1960's and one in 1970. Last season Hobart defeated the Mariners by a score of 30-15, even though the Statesmen were outgained 215 to 244 total yards. Hobart jumped out to 14-0 lead but USMMA would score with 39 seconds left in the second quarter to cut the Statesmen's advantage to 14-7. Hobart increased their lead to 23-7 thanks to a (then) JR DB Todd Collier 41 yard punt return for a TD and a JR PK Sean Kirshe 31 yard FG. Although the Mariners rallied to pull within eight points, the Statesmen would win the game after a Conner Hartigan '16 two yard run for a TD capped a nine play, 75 yard drive with 4:02 left in the contest.
Keys to the Game:
1. All Hands on Deck - The USMMA bring the top rated rushing offense in the nation, which has averaged an outstanding 375.7 YPG, to the "Boz" this Saturday. I have already chronicled some of Hobart's struggles against strong rushing teams, and the triple option requires a lot of patience and discipline to defend. #7 JR QB Robert Moore earned a LL OPOTW award after a stalwart 104 rushing yards and three TD performance last Saturday against Rochester. Moore leads the LL with 149 rushing YPG and is tied for second place in the LL with a handful of other rushers with four TDs. He was a perfect five for five passing for 176 yards and two passing TDs against the Yellow Jackets including an 81 yard strike to #24 SR RB Spencer Blauw and a 53 yard pass to #27 FY WR Luke Jamison. The Mariners have only passed the ball 15 times in three games, but have completed nine of those for a LL leading 232.7 passing efficiency rating. This will force Hobart to respect the long ball, while needing to focus on their gaps and multiple pitchmen that the Mariners triple option offense will utilize. Moore can be rattled however and if played well, the Statesmen could create turnovers like the fumble / scoop and score by Coast Guard (1-3) in the Secretaries Cup game in Week 2 and the game ending interception against SUNY-Maritime (2-1) the Mariners dropped by a score of 20-16. Other players of note include #33 SO FB Wiley Martin, last season's LL ROTY, who's off to another strong start this season, rushing for 260 yards and a LL best six TDs. #14 JR FB Luke Tiefenthaler is a strong blocker at 6'0" 215 lbs. as is #85 SR TE Robert Baker (6'3" 230 lbs.). Baker isn't much of a receiving threat, but when used (twice) he's averaged 17.7 YPC. The experienced USMMA OL is led by #71 SR Parker Johnson (6'2" 272 lbs.) and #70 Ian Stoner (6'1" 266 lbs.).
2. Let's Go Team Air Show - JR WR Brandon Shed ranks second in the nation in receiving TDs (eight) and third in receiving yards (546). Not surprisingly then, JR QB Shane Sweeney is ranked seventh in the nation as a passer and is easily the top passing QB in the LL with an impressive 1,255 yards and 13 TDs compared to only three INTs. The USMMA defense allows just under 200 receiving YPG (197.7) but their opposition's pass completion percentage is on the high side at 63.3%. You can bet OC Jon Drach will look to test this tough Mariners defense, the top ranked rush D in the LL (allowing only 66 YPG and only one rushing TD), through the air. SR WRs Jack Pfohl and Sean Cunningham are off to solid starts catching a combined 31 passes for 341 yards and three TDs. Also off to a good start is the combo of JR TE Zach Withers and SO TE Matt Woods have 175 receiving yards and one score. The USMMA defense is led by #49 SR LB Josh Woodburn (22 total tackles) and #20 SR DB Patrick Keyes (17). Both are All-Conference caliber talents and will need to accounted for by Statesmen blockers.
3. TOP - One of the reasons for success of the triple option is the amount of clock it can burn and how it can wear down a defense. Statesmen fans saw that first hand against Springfield last season and Union used a similar strategy last weekend, keeping the Hobart defense on the field for almost 37 minutes of the contest. While the Statesmen's quick strike offense is fun to watch, the lower amount of running plays can put more pressure on the defense who have to grind it out longer because of it. The Mariners are second in the LL averaging 34:28 of possession. I'd like to see more like a 32-28 ratio Saturday.
Prediction:
On Sunday night I picked Hobart to win by a score of 35-21. After a closer look at the Mariners I think this game will be similar to last year's contest, competitive and lower scoring. I still think the Statesmen will win it, but I'll say it's by a 28-17 margin.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
No comments:
Post a Comment