The #19 Hobart College Statesmen will host the #7 University of Mount Union Purple Raiders this Saturday in a first round playoff match up at Boswell Field. The Raiders (9-1) finished second in the Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) after being upset, 31-28, by John Carroll University (JCU) last Saturday.
Given Mount Union's 9-1 season, plus the fact they are the defending National Champions, the Raiders qualified for one of the six "Pool C" or at large bids to the tournament. This is the first time the Raiders have gone on the road in the playoffs (other than going to Salem for the Stagg Bowl) since 1996. In fact the last time Mount Union lost a regular season game was all the way back in 2005. The last time they lost two games in the same year was 1994 and the last time they lost two in a row was 1988.
The Statesmen actually do have a 2-1 series edge, having beaten the Raiders twice in the early 1970's. Hobart lost to Mount Union by a score of 42-7 in the second round of the NCAA Playoffs back in 2008. That team had Cecil Shorts III as a member of it, who ironically is now the teammate to former Hobart OL Ali Marpet '15 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the NFL.
Scouting the Purple Raiders
As in prior seasons, Mount Union has some fairly gaudy stats on both sides of the ball. They average 515.9 YPG, 49.2 PPG while allowing only 9.7 PPG. They are very balanced in terms of passing vs. rushing offensively, but unlike prior years are more inexperienced at QB.
The Raiders have played five different QBs this season but it appears as though #9 FY QB Dom Davis should be the starter for this Saturday's game. Davis hails from Akron (and attended the same HS as LeBron James) and he showed some FY inexperience against a blitz-heavy JCU team that sacked him seven times and forced four turnovers. In spite of these issues, JCU needed a final drive plus some luck to break Mount Union's 112 regular season game winning streak.
Davis has passed for 1,349 yards and 15 TDs while also rushing for 184 yards and four TDs as well. #1 SR RB Bradley Mitchell leads the Raiders with 1,198 rushing yards and 15 TDs. Mitchell runs behind an experienced and big OL that's led by #52 SR OL Mitch Doraty, #75 JR OL Matt Frichet and #56 SR OL Brooks Jenkins.
Mount Union's receiving corps is led by #14 SR WR Tim Kennedy. He has 42 catches for 487 yards and five TDs. Hobart will need to study the JCU film closely as their defensive secondary limited Kennedy to two catches for 17 yards last weekend. #21 JR WR Jared Ruth is another receiving threat, adding 351 yards and three scores.
Defensively Mount Union is led by #34 SR LB Charlie Dear with 59 tackles, including 8.5 TFL and four sacks. #4 SO LB Danny Robinson isn't far behind with 57 tackles, 5.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks. Although not very big on the DL, #32 JR DL Elijah Berry has been tough to block, tallying 6.5 sacks and nine TFLs, including a forced fumble. The 3-3-5 defense they run has given Hobart difficulties in the past, but that was back when the Statesmen were a run-first team. We'll see how they fare against it Saturday, but it means that other WRs and TEs will need to get open and make intermediate catches from time to time.
The kicking game is headed up by #19 JR PK Alex Louthan who's made 62-63 PATs while adding nine of 14 in FGs with a long of 44 yards. #30 SO PK Adam Snyder is the punter and averages 39.2 YPP. #5 SO RB Jawanza Evans-Morris handles return duties and has averaged 24.8 yards there. The FL native occasionally spells Mitchell, and is the second leading rusher on the team with 472 rushing yards and five TDs.
Game notes posted by Mount Union can be found here.
Keys to the Game:
1. Turnovers - Hobart can ill afford to spot an elite program like the Raiders with any points due to turnovers. On the flip side, the JCU game showed Davis can get rattled and put the ball on the ground or be intercepted (he was picked off and fumbled twice, one of the latter being returned for a TD), something the Statesmen defense must create and capitalize on as much as possible.
2. Win the LOS & Slow Down the Run - Both teams boast big, athletic OLs. Hobart's DL will need to find ways to create pressure with their front four while allowing playmakers like SR OLB Marcus Jemison to have the opportunity to create havoc in the Mount Union backfield. The Statesmen rush defense will be tested early on in the game. If they can hold up, we've got a ball game. JCU held the Raiders to 2.6 YPC on Saturday. A similar effort by the Statesmen would go a long way in this one. On offense the Hobart OL will need to keep JR QB Shane Sweeney up right and not running for his life against the extremely quick DL and LBs the Raiders will send after him. Mount Union's pass defense isn't elite, they allow over 185 YPG via the air which bodes well for the Statesmen - if the OL can give Sweeney time.
3. Weather the Storm - The Statesmen will need to not get overwhelmed if Mount Union gets off to a fast start and they can't get too overconfident if they don't. JCU led for most of the first half, then trailed for a good part of the second. Like the "Cardiac Kids" however they found ways to hang in the game and battle back to win it late on TD pass with 39 seconds left. If Hobart can keep it close, they'll have a chance late also. Mount Union has outscored their opponents 130-7 in the third quarter so halftime adjustments and not falling behind badly here will also be crucial for the Statesmen.
Final Thoughts:
No one from D3football.com or otherwise will pick the Statesmen to win this game. I've seen some odds / "models" that say Mount Union has a 97% chance of winning and will by about 30 points. This Raiders team may not be as experienced as prior versions (e.g., only six players Saturday were in the Stagg Bowl last December) but it's still an excellent and talented squad with one of the best coaching staffs at any level of CFB. While they'll carry a smaller, playoff sized roster to Geneva, Mount Union will be deeper than Hobart at most, if not every position, which could mean fresher legs for them later on in the game. Weather could play a role also as the forecast is for rain and wind in the afternoon, but hopefully not until afterwards.
I am hoping the Statesmen can play their best game of the season and catch some breaks (not likely given how the officials treat them at home, but you never know). As I said on ITH last Sunday, this isn't good draw for Hobart, but they'd have to play Mount Union at some point regardless. The one X factor is how the Raiders will feel being a road team in the playoffs in unfamiliar surroundings, especially with a younger, less experienced roster?
The X factor for Hobart is that the "Boz" has been good to the Statesmen in NCAA RD 1 home games. While it's true that Hobart hasn't faced the likes of a Mount Union in RD1, the Statesmen are 7-1 on their home field in these opening round games (Hobart also won an ECAC game at home back in 2003 with a 34-18 win over Norwich). Of course the one first round loss was to an OAC team, John Carroll, back in 2002. The Statesmen haven't lost at home in the playoffs since 2013, in the second round to Saint John Fisher.
We will see how it goes Saturday. Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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