That was last year, as they say, and Hobart returns a more experienced and improved team in 2019.
Still, Brockport poses a tremendous challenge given their size, speed and defensive scheme which the Statesmen have struggled against in recent years. Hobart is 1-2 in their current series with the Golden Eagles and 4-7 overall, dating back to their original meeting in 1949.
Scouting the Golden Eagles
After a 24-2 run over the past two seasons, Brockport has seen a number of it's All-American and All-Regional players move on via graduation. One of the surprising moves this off-season was the transfer of SR QB Joe Germiniero to Ithaca, meaning SR QB Jason Hellwig is now the man in charge of the Golden Eagles offense.
Saturday won't be the first time he's started for Brockport however, as he did that back in 2017 against Saint Lawrence (more on that later). Hellwig (who we interviewed as part of our In the D3FB Huddle preseason show) will have a strong supporting cast, as seven starters return from last season on offense. The key one of those is SR RB Justin Morrison, who missed most of 2018 due to injury. Morrison rushed for 176 yards and two TDs the last time he played in Geneva, and will likely be a core aspect of the Brockport offense. Leading the way for Hellwig and Morrison will be SR OL Luke Lodino, who's also a captain of the team. Joining him will be returning starting tackle, JR OL Shawn Pridell.
The question mark for this season is how will DC Mike Fox replace several defensive stars, including having eight new starters in 2019? This unit will be led by SR OLB Alex West, who earned second team All-American preseason recognition by D3football.com. Joining him is JR OLB Lawrence Jenkins, who earned Empire 8 all-conference honors after ranking third in TFL and sacks last season. Jenkins is a versatile player, who's able to drop back in coverage and defended ten passes a year ago.
Also back in the secondary is SO DB Ben Marshall, who started in games when Jake O’Connell '19 was down with an injury. Other defensive players like SO DL Jordan Harris, Tafari Nedrick and Hakeem Yaya are expected to have more opportunities to step in and contribute this season as well.
Keys to the Game:
1. Learn from St. Lawrence - Hellwig's first career start showed some tendencies we could see this Saturday, namely more of an emphasis on running the football. Brockport ran the ball on 43 plays, compared to only 21 pass attempts, in that game. To Hellwig's credit he completed 14 of those 20 (70%) and a TD. He rushed for 115 yards, a TD and even caught a TD pass as well. Based on that history, I expect a somewhat similar game plan, leveraging the Golden Eagles' large OL, Saturday. Hellwig will distribute the ball on short to intermediate pass plays and at 6'4" he can easily see the field. As a baseball pitcher in the off-season, he's got strong enough arm to deliver the ball to Brockport's very fast and sure-handed players like SR WR Daquan Hubbard and SR WR Joseph Ortiz who have combined for 3,724 receiving yards and 33 TDs in their impressive careers.
2. Defense - Brockport has averaged 511 YPG against Hobart dating back to 2016. That's a ridiculous number and one the Statesmen need to change. While the Golden Eagles are likely to eat up some yards and clock, the Hobart defense can make a statement in keeping this game close from start. Hellwig is used to playing with a substantial lead. If the Statesmen DL can provide pressure and the LB/DB corps can come up with a turnover or two, Hobart stands a good chance.
3. Test the Corners - The one area the Statesmen have a clear advantage over Brockport is their WRs against a younger, less experienced CB unit. If SR QB Ryan Hofmann and/or SO QB David Krewson (who I do expect will play some) can get enough time in the pocket to find them, Hobart could make some significant gains, especially if running the football against the 3-3 stack defense remains difficult.
4. Don't Beat Yourselves - Week 1 football is often full of penalties due to mental and other mistakes given limited practice. Last season there were 13 penalties called in the game, and even though they didn't make much of a difference in the outcome, they are more costly in closer games (which we're all hoping for Saturday). INTs hurt Hobart last season also, as they saw one of their two INTs go for a 60-yard pick six.
Prediction:
Pretty much every outlet is predicting a Brockport win. Hansen Ratings predicts the Golden Eagles will win the game 33-24 and that the Statesmen only have a 27% chance of upsetting Brockport. I suspect D3football.com will make a similar prediction in their weekly Friday "Quick Hits" article.
Hobart should be an underdog in this game, but I think the team won't be blown out like they were last season. My head says the Hobart OL will need some time to gel and the offense may only score about 14 points, coming up short somewhere in the 28-14 range. My heart though says I'll take the Statesmen to upset the Golden Eagles on a late JR PK Kyle Hackett FG, 24-21.
Go 'Bart!
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