MSU (1-1) had a solid 28-11 win over Salve Regina (1-2) in Week 2 and an extra week to prepare for Hobart. The Statesmen (3-0), who needed a last second FG to put away their NJAC cohort, Rowan (0-3), got basically zero credit for that win last Saturday. Skeptics expected a more one-sided game and so it seems like the Statesmen mostly made the Top 25 based on nine or so losses other teams had between the 10-25 spots in the poll. Still, the pollsters are giving Hobart respect based on the schedule played to date, and deservedly so, especially compared to other East Region and LL schools. That said, a strong win over the Red Hawks, who have never faced off against the Statesmen, could get the doubters on the Hobart bandwagon.
Scouting the Red Hawks
A thorough look at the MSU season to date can be seen here.
My main take-away from that article is that the Red Hawks believed a little too much of their hype going into Week 1 against what's normally a doormat SoVA team. Clearly the loss has woken them up, and while they didn't beat Salve too soundly, it was a win they should have earned and did.
MSU's success really rides on the arm of JR QB Ja'Quill Burch, who was my preseason pick for NJAC OPOTY. Against SoVA however, he was turnover prone, throwing three INTs. The OL held their own giving up a sack and 2 TFL. The Red Hawks OL is an experienced group with four starters back from last season, led by SR OL Stephen Gaffney. Gaffney was named to the Preseason D3football.com All-American third team. A sixth blocker is JR TE Jack Welti, who at 6'5", 235lbs. is a big target, but so far hasn't caught a pass this season.
The Red Hawks defense by comparison sacked the SoVA QB once but had eight TFL. The longest drive the Knights had that day was only 35 yards, not including a 43-yard KO return for a TD. Basically everything that could have gone wrong for MSU in that game did and so their defensive stats are a bit skewed because of it.
Burch would rebound against Salve, passing for 292 yards and three TDs. He was moderately accurate, going 12-22 (54%) with an INT, but the passes he connected on went for big gains against the Seahawk's defense. The OL struggled a bit more in this game, giving up two sacks and 10 TFL, which probably contributed to Burch's accuracy numbers.
Burch has three WRs he's mostly distributed the ball to including SR WR Kason Campbell (7-183, 1 TD), JR WR Karsen Johnson (5-142, 2 TDs) and SR WR Mike Manzo-Lewis (6-118, 1 TD). JR RB Craig Merkle has rushed for 171 yards on 38 carries and a TD. His YPR stats are bolstered due to a 71 run he had for a TD late in the game against Salve. SR RB Ralph McLean has been more of a short yardage specialist, with 16 carries for 42 yards.
The Red Hawks defense is led by SO DB Zack Zaccone who's tallied 19 tackles, two TFL and one INT. SO DB Brennan Ray leads the team with 1.5 sacks and 3.5 TFL (which leads me to believe the Statesmen need to keep a blocker in the backfield to ward off incoming blitzes from the secondary).
MSU runs a variation of the 3-3-5 stack defense which Hobart has struggled with in the past. It will be interesting to see if the Statesmen stick with the pass-centric attack they used against Rowan or if we may see a return to some balance? I'm expecting limited rushing attempts once again as the Red Hawks are tough to run on, allowing only 88.5 YPG, 2.3 YPR and a single rushing TD in two games.
On special teams the Red Hawks have tried two punters with limited success, averaging under 25 YPP with two blocks. This could an opportunity Hobart can exploit Saturday. Their punt return average is negative, so not much to worry about there, but the KO return stats aren't bad - averaging over 21 YPKO. Campell, one of the WRs, has been successful here, returning three kicks for 80 yards with a long of 38. SO PK Anthony Marinelli has averaged 42.5 YPKO and has gone 1-2 on FGs so far this season. His long of 22 initially made me think MSU would be more aggressive play-calling wise inside the opponent's 30 or 20-yard line, but so far they've only attempted one 4th-down conversion this season.
Jon McGriff P'15 will be leading the charge from the stands Saturday
Keys to the Game:
1. Focus on the Fundamentals: Low, bad snaps, turnovers and penalties have to be cut down. While the latter hasn't been an issue so far for the Statesmen, last weekend Hobart almost lost the game because of the former three. Assuming he's back at center, JR OL Alex Lanzana needs to deliver a better ball to SR QB Ryan Hofmann to give him the extra time he needs to see the field and not force passes like he had to last weekend.
2. Don't Get Burned - The Statesmen are still giving up more passing yards than they are gaining, but the good news is, they've only allowed three passing TDs so far this season. Burch will look for deep pass plays against the Hobart secondary, so it'll be incumbent on the Statesmen DL and LBs to create pressure up front. The MSU OL has allowed only three sacks in two games but they have allowed 12 TFLs. Hobart has 10 sacks on the season to date to go with 29 TFL, so they appear to have an edge there. While the Hawks had success with the long ball against Salve, the MSU red zone offense has not been very good overall so far this season. They have only scored twice on five trips inside the red zone, one TD and a 22-yard FG. By comparison, Hobart's defense has allowed four TDs on 12 trips into their red zone this season.
3. Special Teams - The Statesmen have a clear advantage on special teams and could use a play like the one JR FS Cal Sullivan made here in Week 2 (see below). I had an exchange with SLU HC Dan Puckhaber prior to Week 3 and encouraged him to blitz the Mustangs since it helped Hobart in the second half of their game. He smartly replied, "[Two] blocked punts helped too." MSU has given up a couple of punt blocks already. Let's see if the Statesmen can get at least one more on Saturday.
4. Win on 3rd-Down: The Red Hawks are making and allowing 3rd-down conversions 38% of the time so far this season. The Statesmen on the other hand have only converted at a 27% vs. 40% rate. The Hobart offense needs to do a better job extending drives. While the Hobart D has held up their end of the bargain - holding opponents to only 16 PPG, including an impressive run in the final 13 minutes of the Rowan game where the Statesmen held the Profs 25 yards on 15 plays - the Statesmen defense has been on the field for an average of 35+ minutes per game which isn't a sustainable model, in my opinion.
Prediction:
This should be the biggest crowd of the season given the Homecoming and Family Weekend festivities. I hope to hear and see a packed Boz (and maybe a game video that has real-time and tracked audio that matches the visual...?), which should give the Statesmen an extra boost. I think this will be a tough fight, but I think some of the intangibles from the defense and special teams, with a better executed offensive game-plan, can win the day for Hobart.
I'll take the Statesmen to win and go to 4-0 by a score of 27-14.
Keep an eye out for In the D3FB Huddle's Week 3 recap show coming out later today.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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