The Hobart College Statesmen return to Boswell Field for another big Liberty League showdown against conference rival, RPI (6-0, 2-0). First off, thank goodness this is a home game otherwise Statesmen fans and families wouldn't be able to attend. Frank and I have spoken about this issue a lot on our ITH podcast, so I won't go back over old news.
Second, RPI comes into this matchup off a (scoreboard deceiving) 24-16 win over Buffalo State (0-5, 0-2). The Engineers have always been a tough out for the Statesmen (4-1, 0-1), but they haven't won a game at the "Boz" since a narrow, 2 point conversion play incompletion gave RPI a 21-20 win back in 2015. Although both Hobart and RPI are RVs in the D3football.com Top 25, the Engineers did make it into the AFCA Coaches Poll at #25.
Scouting the Engineers
RPI has the largest class of SR and 5th year players in the LL, with close to 50 SAs on their roster. This added experience has enabled them to edge teams in close games. The Engineers started off their season winning games by 1 and 4 points, respectively.
RPI is led on offense by SR QB George Marinopoulos. The game this weekend in Geneva is a bit of a "full circle" moment for him as his first collegiate action came against Hobart in 2017, his FY. In 2021, Marinopoulos has passed for 1,455 yards with 18 TDs and only 3 INTs. Both the yardage and TD marks lead the LL at the moment. He's thrown for over 7,000 yards in his 35-game playing career, averaging over 200 YPG passing. An interesting note regarding the RPI offense is that Marinopoulos has 1 rushing TD also, which is tied for the team lead (more on that in a minute).
The Engineers offense is interesting in that they've called virtually an equal number of pass and run plays (196-194), but RPI's offense moves the ball primarily through the air. The Engineers average over 250 passing YPG compared to 103.5 rushing YPG. Scoring is also primarily all via the pass, as RPI has 20 compared to 2 rushing TDs.
SR RB Dylan Burnett is the the Engineers primary RB/SB. He has the one other rushing TD on the year and has carried the ball a team high 49 times for 168 yards. He's added 4 catches for 61 yards as well.
Marinopoulos's favorite target is SR WR Peter Lombardi and he leads the team with 41 receptions for 424 yards and 6 TDs. RPI likes to spread the ball around so it's no surprise that 8 other receivers have scored at least 1 TD for the Engineers this season.
While the offense has been successful, the strength of this team has been it's defense. They have held teams to 14.17 PPG (and this number is inaccurate in my opinion due to defensive scores from Week 1 and late garbage time TDs in recent weeks) and their 260.5 YPG allowed is second in the LL to Hobart (213.6 YPG).
SR LB Joe Deptula leads the Engineers defense and is ranked 3rd in the LL with 46 total tackles. He also has a a team and LL high 6 TFL. SR DB Perry Francis leads RPI with 3 INT. JR DB Carlos Davis has picked off opposing QBs twice.
On special teams, SR PK Conor MacDougall handles the FGs, hitting 3 from inside 29 yards. His one miss was an over 30 yard attempt. He also averages 49.2 YPK on KOs and has gone 21-22 on PATs (one being an actual game winner vs. Montclair in Week 1). The punter is SR PK Zac Montrief (a GR player) who's averaging over 39 YPP and has impressively dropped the ball inside the opposition's 20 yard line 10 times this season while also forcing 7 fair catches.
Keys to the Game:
1. Win the LOS - The Statesmen OL struggled against an attacking Ithaca defense two weekends ago and I expect a similar challenge from RPI. While the Engineers don't have a ton of sacks this season (it's between 5-7*) they do have a respectable number of TFL (24). This pressure has led opposing QBs to make some bad throws and decisions, leading to 8 INT. On the flip side, the RPI OL could be potentially exploited by the Hobart DL/OLBs. The Engineers have allowed a surprisingly high 19-20 sacks (*there are discrepancies between the RPI and LL data) and 39 TFL in 6 games this season. Unfortunately the Statesmen are dead last in the LL for getting sacks with only 5 so far this season. I think this is partially due to the 3-man front the Statesmen run today (I've been very vocal I prefer 4 DL, but that seems like a defense of the "old days" at this point) and probably because of SR OLB Emmett Forde's absence from the lineup due to his shoulder injury. Marinopoulos is a poised QB and game manager, so I don't expect him to make many mistakes, but with enough pressure, he could have flashbacks to his 2 INT and 2 sack game he experienced in Geneva in 2019, a dominating, 41-27 Hobart win.
2. Win on 3rd Down - The RPI offense has gone for it 16 times on 4th down this season, successfully converting 10 of those attempts. Part of the reason for having to do that is they rank 2nd to last in the LL in 3rd down conversions, going 25-77 (32.5%). It's imperative that the Statesmen defense forces the Engineers into these difficult 3rd down plays, which is a clear weakness for RPI. While the Engineers do have a great punter which will help them in flipping the field, Hobart needs to force the RPI offense off the field in these key situations.
3. Cut Out the Penalties - This is a matchup of polar opposites. RPI is the least penalized team in the LL (36 YPG) and Hobart is the most (79.4 YPG). That is probably where you can really see the difference in experience between the two squads. While the Statesmen due enjoy a VERY strong home field advantage - winning 8 in a row at home (last home loss was a 10-3 game to Ithaca at the end of the 2018 regular season) - the local officiating crews haven't cut the Statesmen many breaks (quite the opposite, usually). Hobart can't afford to shoot themselves in the foot like they did in Ithaca (9 flags for -70 yards) and expect to get a win on Saturday.
4. Be Creative - The Statesmen will need to be creative in trying to find ways to move the ball. RPI has one of the best passing defenses in the LL and have only allowed 2 pass TDs all season. They are strong against the run, allowing 112.5 rush YPG and only 6 TDs (basically just one per game they've played). Something will have to give here for Hobart to get a win. I do think the Statesmen can make some calls to keep the Engineers defense off guard, but once again it'll come down to JR QB David Krewson taking some calculated shots down field on high percentage completion plays. With the Hobart TEs likely needing to stay home and block, the Hobart WRs (and/or RBs, which are likely better options given matchups vs. LBs) will need to step up against the most experienced defensive secondary they'll face all season.
Prediction:
I think this will be a low-scoring, defensive struggle for most of the game. It would be great if SO RB Rayshawn Boswell could have a big KOR or running play that opens things up for Hobart and it wouldn't surprise me if we see a few FG attempts from both teams Saturday.
In the end I think the Statesmen can prevail if they button up and play to their strengths. If this game was in Troy, I may have had to have picked RPI this week, but the Boz is a different story. I'll take Hobart in 24-21 nail-biter. Should be a great game either way.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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