The Hobart College Statesmen will travel to Schenectady this Saturday for what we predicted would be the biggest game of the season back in August. Hobart (6-1, 2-1) will face off against #12 Union (7-0, 3-0) in what's basically a playoff / postseason elimination game for the Statesmen. There is no more New York State LL/E8 Bowl to fall back on and, as far as I know, the Statesmen never rejoined the ECAC (for FB), so a loss this weekend means no postseason for Hobart.
Union has won 20 straight regular season games dating all the way back to 10/13/18 (a 24-0 defeat to Ithaca). The week before that game also happened to be the Statesmen's last win over the Dutchmen, an exciting 29-28 comeback victory that saw now 5th yr SR FS Cal Sullivan intercept SR QB William Bellamy (shown below) in the 4th quarter which helped Hobart burn out most of the remaining time in the game to hang on for the win.
These are both very different teams now, with HC Jeff Behrman and staff having built the Dutchmen into one of the premier programs in Region 2 / the East. To be honest, this 2021 Union team seems a little less potent than their 11-1, 2019-selves, but regardless, the Liberty League championship and AQ bid to the playoffs still runs through them.
The Statesmen are the first in a trio of tough games if the Dutchmen plan to defend their LL title and return to the NCAA playoffs. Union's opponents to date have gone a combined 16-33. Including Hobart, the Dutchmen's final 3 foes are a combined 19-2.
Scouting the Dutchmen
It all starts with SR QB William Bellamy for Union. I would dare say he's the best QB in the LL, if not Region 2 (to be fair, there are at least a couple of guys in the Centennial that could easily make that same claim however).
Bellamy has passed for 1,321 yards and has the best efficiency rating (164.1) in the LL. He's thrown 16 TDs to only 5 INTs in seven games, averaging just under 190 YPG passing.
He has a wide array of targets to chose from including JR/SR Andre Ross, Jr. (27 rec., 402 yds., 7 TD), likely LL ROTY FY WR Robbie Tolbert (25 rec., 372 yds., 6 TD) and SO/JR WR Finn Duran (15 rec., 203 yds., 2 TD).
Bellamy has been well protected by his OL, as the Dutchmen have only given up 2 sacks all season. This is also because Union usually plays max-protect (meaning having seven guys blocking when Bellamy drops back).
Also benefitting from the OL play are the Union RB corps. They are led by JR/SR Ike' Irabor (104 rush., 499 yds., 8 TD), who almost single-handedly beat Hobart in the 2019 game with 191 rush yards and 2 TDs. Occasionally spelling Irabor (who did miss some time due to injury earlier this season) are FY RB Jonathan Anderson (77 rush., 379 yds., 6 TD) and backup FY/SO Michael Fiore (39 rush., 239 yds., 3 TD).
Defensively Union is led by 5th year SR LB Colin Lama with 50 tackles (tied for 5th in the LL). SO/JR DL Jimaar Edwards has been a problem for opposing QBs, with 6 TFL and 2.5 sacks. The Dutchmen defense has racked up an impressive 18 sacks and 52 TFL so far this season. Nine different players have at least 1 INT on the year too.
On special teams the Dutchmen have a dedicated specialist in FY/SO Andrew Lau. He handles KOs (averaging 57.3 YPK)), punting (net average of 37.95 YPP) and FG/PATs (5-7 with a long of 29 and 29-32 on PATs).
Keys to the Game
1. Contain "The Big 3" - Bellamy, Irabor and Ross, Jr. are the keys to Union's recent offensive success. While they will all certainly make some plays in Saturday, the Statesmen defense just needs to bend and not break when they do. An improved LB corps by Hobart (compared to the 2019 version) should assist with Irabor, so the real pressure will be on the Statesmen DL/OLBs getting to Bellamy and throwing off his timing. I imagine the Dutchmen will look to get Ross, Jr. open on Hobart's less experienced DBs and OLBs (e.g., Bliss, Mahoney and Hansen), which was a strategy that worked well for Ithaca.
2. Penalties & Turnovers - Can we really say with a straight face that there's a buttoned up, "Hobart Way" of playing football when it's been so sloppy for 7 games? I understand this team is one of the Statesmen's youngest in quite some time but the lack of discipline and accountability regarding penalties on the field has been one of the hardest things to accept about them as an avid (some may say crazy) Hobart fan/alum. Last Saturday against SLU, Hobart was flagged 10 times for -95 yards. The Statesmen will not win on Saturday if they do their usual ~8 flags for -80 YPG average. Fortunately, Union has struggled a little bit in this area as well, being flagged for about 6x per game and -63 YPP, on average. Hopefully the officials won't decide the outcome of this one, and given the intensity of this rivalry, Hobart will need to keep calm and not be drawn into post-whistle shenanigan's. On a separate, but similar note, turnovers have been an issue for Hobart of late, and they had a huge impact in the 23-7 loss to Union back in 2019. JR/SR QB David Krewson has to be better and can't afford to make errant shuffle passes / fumbles. A steady diet of higher pass percentage quick-outs, slants, skinny posts and/or dig routes to work the middle of the field (where Krewson has really succeeded as a passer) will help feed the Statesmen offense and move the chains.
3. Pound the Rock - SO/JR RBs Rayshawn Boswell and Tim Denham, Jr. need to keep pounding away at the Union defense, who showed they were susceptible to a power run game in a close one (30-23) against triple-option experts Springfield College (4-3, 3-0 NEWMAC). The Pride ran for 290 yards that day and scored 2 rush TDs, committing zero penalties in the game, but they were ultimately done in by losing the turnover battle with 2 INTs.
Prediction
In spite of having the defense and running game to make this interesting, I feel like penalties and turnovers will haunt Hobart again in Schenectady. Unfortunately, I feel like Union will pull away late, not unlike Ithaca did 4 weeks ago, and go on to win this one, 31-17.
I would love to be wrong, but in spite of the great work and obstacles overcome by Hobart this year, Union just seems like the healthier and stronger side. I have to say, I kind of blame the LL on this one too, because really this game should have been at Boswell Field this season. That would have definitely impacted things (not to mention my prediction) as well.
There should be a huge crowd (this is Union's Homecoming game) and electric playoff-football atmosphere Saturday.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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