The Hobart College Statesmen will come off the bye weekend to go on the first of two Liberty League (LL) road trips.
Up first are the RPI Engineers. The Engineers (4-2, 2-0) are the defending LL champions, and are still in the hunt for the conference crown, tied for first place with Ithaca (5-0, 2-0). Hobart (3-2, 0-1) was the one regular season loss RPI suffered in 2021, a 10-9 defensive battle in Geneva.
The Statesmen have been a bit of a "torn in the side" of the Engineers of late, having defeated their LL rivals twice in a row and three out of the last four contests. This conference rivalry is a close one, and the recent victories by Hobart have given them a narrow 32-31-1 edge in the all-time series. Based on that, this will be the 65 time the two teams have met, dating back to 1910.
This year the Statesmen will go to the "ECAV" and face the (statistically) best defense in the LL. You can bet the Engineers want to get some payback from last season's loss to Hobart. This game promises to be a hard-hitting, low scoring affair again.
Scouting the Engineers
The similarities between these two teams this season are interesting.
Offensively, the Statesmen have averaged about a TD more (27.6 PPG to 21.8 PPG) and just about six YPG (325-319.7) more than the Engineers. RPI has been shut out once, in a strange 3-0 loss to Saint John Fisher (2-4. 0-2) and was held without points by Carnegie Mellon (5-0, 3-0) until under two minutes to go in that game.
The last two games the offense has been moving the ball and putting up a lot of points, albeit against inferior teams - a 42-14 blowout over winless Buffalo State (0-5, 0-2) last weekend and a 31-3 win over Rochester (1-4, 0-2) back in Week 5. The Engineers have run the ball a little better than Hobart (176-143.6 YPG) and have basically the exact same yards per rush (4.3-4.4) and rushing TDs (10) stats. The offenses have the exact same number of passing TDs (7), but the Statesmen have a better completion percentage (54.7 to 49.7%), but RPI has attempted 42 more passes so far this season. RPI has called about 70 more running plays also (likely due to having an extra game on Hobart).
Where RPI seems to have an advantage is on the defensive side of the ball. They had a couple of preseason All-Americans there, and most, if not all the starters are 4th and 5th year players. The Engineers have the best scoring defense (6.2 PPG allowed), total defense (177.2 YPG), rushing defense (54.6 YPG), passing defense (123 YPG), and defensive efficiency (76.3) in the LL. They also lead the league with 12 INTs (basically averaging two per game) with a pick six and nearly 240 INT return yards. They are second in the LL in sacks with 14. Hobart is third with nine sacks.
Keys to the Game:
1. Buckle Down on Burnett: While there is a minor statistical disagreement between RPI and the LL's rushing stats, 5th year SR RB Dylan Burnett is second in the league with 108-111 YPG rushing. He's tied for third place with six rushing TDs and is a key component to the Engineers offense. Given RPI's lack of experience (and success) at QB, Hobart should stack the box and do their best to contain Burnett putting the onus of the offense on whichever first year starter gets the call Saturday. Neither QB that the Engineers have started have great stats, and both have struggled with turnovers. If the Statesmen can keep Burnett in check, they'll have a great chance in this game. Still, the secondary has to be ready. Although RPI doesn't have a lot of receiving threats (top SR WR Peter Lombardi was injured in the WPI game and has yet to return), they have four WRs/slot backs who have made catches of 40 yards, or better.
2. The Trenches: The matchup to watch in this game will be between the Hobart OL vs. the RPI DL. The Statesmen can ill-afford any bad snaps or missed blocking assignments as the Engineers defense will look to collapse the pocket and force SR QB David Krewson into bad situations. The trio pictured above (5th year SR DL Josh Cohen, SO DL Nate Picard and 5th year SR DL Amaechi Konkwo) have combined for 11.5 TFL and six sacks. This RPI secondary and LB corps (the latter has two of the top tacklers - SR LB Connor Noyes and 5th year SR LB Joe Deptula - in the LL) has averaged 2 INTs a game and Hobart must avoid turning the ball over as often as they did against Ithaca. Running the ball will be difficult against such a strong front, but I feel like the Statesmen need to stick to their strengths and keep it on the ground for a decent part of this game. While the weather dictated it last season, Hobart had 56 rushes for 222 yards, and I would think a similar "ground and pound" approach can work again this year.
3. Special Teams: I have a feeling given the defensive strength of both teams; scoring will be at a premium in this game, just like it was last year. SO PK Tobias Wefering and RPI's FY PK Aleksandar Maric have struggled some (each have a 50% FG kicking percentage) but will likely have at least a handful of FG tries in this game. How they fare will definitely have a big impact on the outcome. Field position via kickoffs and punts will be important also, so hopefully Hobart will bounce back after some struggles in Week 5.
Prediction:
The odd thing about this matchup is that with the common opponent of SJF (who Hobart blanked, 17-0 in Week 3 who then blanked RPI, 3-0, in Week 4), you'd initially think Hobart would win this one going away. It would be great if that's the case, but I'm not so sure it will be Saturday.
I'll be curious to hear what HC Kevin DeWall '00 has to say about RPI in this week's podcast with Ted, so I plan to tune in Thursday for that. I'm pretty sure this game will be discussed on Frank and my In the D3FB Huddle twitter / Facebook live show on Friday at 9 AM ET also.
That said I think it'll be a lot closer game, and the Statesmen will need to play mistake free football to come out of Troy with a win. I still like Hobart in this one given the QB situation at RPI, but not by much.
I'll take the Statesmen in a nail-baiter, 16-13.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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