I hope everyone who was able to attend the Bicentennial Gala and weekend had a blast. From the photos and videos that I saw, it looked like a great party.
Time to refocus.
It's Union week and the season has come down to this weekend.
Much like 2018, a tough initial 5-4 year for the DeWall regime, this season has been an up and down one for Statesmen fans, friends and families. A win over LL rival Union (6-1, 3-0), which hasn't happened since that 2018 season, would go a long way in raising the spirits of the Hobart Football faithful. It would also be a nice way to avenge a 27-20 OT loss in Schenectady last season, which I literally had a front row, sideline view.
The Statesmen are 49-53-2 all time vs. the Dutchmen, making this the 105th game in this series, Hobart's second longest active one, if memory serves. The Statesmen (4-3, 1-2) need to win this game to avoid a fourth loss and keep the possibility of another ECAC bid, and a chance to host the bowl game (pending seedings), more likely than not.
Scouting the Dutchmen
Union comes into this game with the second ranked scoring offense (39.86 PPG) and third ranked defense (12.14 PPG) in the league. While they have a lot of new faces from last year's squad at key positions, especially on defense, there are a couple of players back who have been "Statesmen killers" in their careers.
5YR SR RB Ike Irabor has had some of the best games of his career against the Hobart defense. Over those three games he's rushed 92 times for 398 yards and 5 TDs. He has also had 3 receptions for 30 yards and 1 TD (back in the 2018 game).
Classmate 5YR SR WR Andre Ross. Jr. was pretty much shut down in the 2019 game, but he scorched the Statesmen for long TDs in the '18 and '21 seasons. He has 15 catches for 350 receiving yards and 2 TDs in his career against Hobart.
New starting QB Donovan Pacette has vaulted to the top of the LL passing charts, currently ranked as the #1 QB in conference, leading the league in passing completions (70.4%), passing YPG (183.8), and efficiency (189.1). He is second in passing TDs (9), total pass yards (1,103) and (lowest) INTs with only 3. He was knocked out of the Utica game in Week 4 but seems back and healthy since.
This season Union has gone to more of a two RB look, with Irabor (78 carries for 573 yards and 9 TDs) and JR RB Michael Fiori who actually leads the team in carries with 95. He's gained 471 yards on the ground and scored 7 TDs this season.
Ross, Jr. has the most receiving TDs (5), but actually trails FY WR Nicolas Dunneman in receiving yards (387 to 508) and the FY has caught 32 passes compared to Ross, Jr.'s 17.
Defensively the Dutchmen are led by big (6' 3" 225 lbs.) SR LB Spencer Goldstein who has 53 total tackles on the season, which is tied for fourth place in the LL going into Week 9. Goldstein has added 5 TFL to go with 2.5 sacks and a team high 3 INTs on the season.
The Union defense has intercepted opposing QBs 7 times this season and the Dutchmen have recovered one fumble. If my math is correct, Union is only +2 in TOM, which bodes well for this weekend.
On special teams, the Dutchmen have a very strong kicker in JR PK Andrew Lau. He handled all duties, including KOs (57.1 YPKO average with 5 TBs), punting (averaging nearly 40 YPP) and FGs (going 5-6 with a long of 35 yards).
Keys to the Game:
1. Pick Your Poison (Carefully): Coach Behrman has done a great job building back the Union program to a team that can beat you in multiple ways. You stuff the run, the Dutchmen go over the top with Ross, Jr. You drop back in coverage; Union will run at your defense 30-35+ times a game. There's really no good formula here, in my opinion, other than quit with the 2-3 DL alignments, line up and play gap defense with some disguised coverages to try and confuse Pacette into making bad reads. The Statesmen need someone at DE/DL to create pressure from the outside and hold up the Dutchmen OL so that LBs like SO LB Anthoy Romano can make tackles at the point of attack, which given this Union offense, will be right up the middle. Otherwise, it could be a long day.
2. Krewson 2.021: I think in the past four seasons that I've followed his career, 5YR SR David Krewson's best game was against Union last year. He accounted for 287 total yards, hitting passes for 41 and 52 yards, respectively, and breaking off a run of 10 yards. He was the main reason Hobart had a chance to win that game, and almost did, just coming up a few inches short in OT. This season Union is not as deep or talented at DL/LB as they were last season. The Statesmen coaches should let Krewson leverage his natural abilities and size to run it here and there, hopefully opening up the passing game for a longer strike downfield. While most of Union's defense are newer starters, their secondary is probably the most experienced group. My guess is the Dutchmen will likely put 7-8 defenders "in the box", as they run a modified version of the 3-5-3 stack, basically daring Hobart to beat them with the passing game.
3. Home Sweet Home: A quirky / bad decision by the LL with respect scheduling due to the "COVID year" in 2020 forced Hobart to lose a home game in this series, so the last two games against the Dutchmen have been on the road. Prior to that, the Statesmen had beaten Union five straight at the "Boz". In fact, you'd have to go back to the 2008 season for the last time the Dutchmen have won a game at Hobart. In spite of the Week 5 setback against Ithaca, the Statesmen are still 13-1 at home since the start of the 2019 season. Four of the last five Hobart vs. Union games have been decided by a TD or less, and I expect the same situation in this year's game.
4. Penalties: I hate to beat a "dead horse" but given the rivalry and emotions which run high in this game, keeping composure will be huge. Union has struggled with penalties this year as much, if not more so than Hobart, which is interesting. The Statesmen need to avoid the unnecessary personal fouls and other drive killers which have plagued them all season. You have to expect the referees working this game know both teams tend to be flagged a lot, so whichever can stay the most "buttoned up" will greatly help their cause getting a key LL win Saturday.
Prediction:
This one is tough. On paper, and based on play to date, Union should be the favorite. That said Hobart is the team with "nothing to lose" while the Dutchmen still have a fighting chance at making the NCAA playoffs, so the pressure is on them.
Union is one of three teams in the running for the LL title and on the Region 2 Pool C "bubble", along with Utica and Morrisville State as Region 2 teams with only one overall loss (Salisbury is also 6-1 overall but a likely lock to win the NJAC's AQ). Union has the lowest SoS of the three (164th SOS), however, so with five conferences and only seven spots on the list, I don't expect to see Union on there this week.
Either way, I'm sure both teams view this as a "must win" situation. For Hobart it's a double down to salvage a tough 2022 campaign and submarine the Dutchmen's NCAA playoff hopes. The Statesmen have played a much tougher schedule (73rd SOS) than Union, so I think that gives them the experience to overcome adversity and have a chance to knock off the Dutchmen Saturday.
I'll say Hobart prevails by a 27-24 margin, in comeback fashion, kind of like the 2018 game.
Here's hoping.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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