The Hobart Statesmen (2-3, 1-2) come out of their bye week to face the US Merchant Marine Academy (4-3, 1-2) on what looks to be a wet Boswell Field this Saturday. Showers are in the forecast for Geneva and the surrounding area beginning this Friday and continuing through the weekend. Both Hobart and the USMMA are coming off losses to league rivals (Union and Rochester, respectively) and would like to get back to .500 in Liberty League (LL). The Statesmen have won the last five straight (including last season’s 24-0 shutout at Kings Point, NY) against the USMMA, but this is a much improved Mariners squad.
The USMMA caught the league’s attention back in week five with a 24-8 upset over the Susquehanna Crusaders (5-2, 3-1). Since that win the USMMA has split games against LL opponents by defeating WPI (3-3, 0-3) and losing to Rochester (2-4, 2-2).
The Mariner offense is the second rated scoring offense in the LL averaging 25.7 points per game. The USMMA is lead by JR QB Derrick Ventre (81 completions on 144 attempts for 850 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions) and JR RB Karl Heimbrock (132 carries for 603 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns; 16 receptions for 129 yards and two receiving touchdowns). Heimbrock (who was a linebacker his first and sophomore years but who also starred at RB at Cherry Creek High School in Denver, CO) leads the LL in points scored thanks to 12 touchdowns.
In the event Ventre struggles, USMMA will look to SR QB Carlton Hobkirk to lead the offense. Hobkirk has started three games this season and has decent stats (24 completions on 49 attempts for 208 yards and one touchdown). Back up FY RB Alex Coviello has also been effective, tallying 295 yards rushing on 66 carries and two touchdowns.
Ventre and Hobkirk have several targets on offense including SO WR Mike Mitchell (24 receptions for 298 yards and three touchdowns), JR TE Grant Wright (21 receptions for 268 yards and two touchdowns) and SO WR Chris Adema (16 catches for 167 yards and one touchdown). These weapons have enabled the Mariners to be first in the LL in time of possession. The USMMA is also not prone to make mistakes and are the least penalized team in the LL.
On defense the Mariners are lead by SR LB Calder Kaatz (42 solo and 55 total tackles including three TFL, one sack and two forced fumbles). JR FS Marcus Broeder (31 solo, 44 total tackles including 2.5 TFL, two interceptions and two fumble recoveries) and FR SS Sal Milone (23 solo, 39 total tackles including 3.5 TFL, three sacks and one fumble recovery) are also defensive stalwarts.
The USMMA are second in the LL in pass defense (only allowing an average 159.7 yards per game) and are opportunistic. The Mariners are +5 in turnover margin and lead the LL with 18 sacks. If there is a chink in this defense’s armor, it’s defending against the running game. The Mariners rank last in the LL on rush defense allowing 192.3 rushing yards per game on average. This could be an opportunity for Hobart and JR RB Andrew Marlier and the Statesmen offensive line to exploit on Saturday.
That said here are my
Keys to the Game:
1. Avoid turnovers – A lot of rain Friday and Saturday morning means the “Boz” will likely return to its “quagmiresque” late October form. The mud and rain will likely make the football slippery and thus “fumble prone”. Also the USMMA is used to playing on “new-style” turf vs. grass. Expect a lot scoring affair that will probably see field position being a big factor in the outcome of the game. The Mariners are +5 in turnover margin, but their offense has 12 “give aways” to the Statesmen’s six (three fumbles and three interceptions on the season; respectively). SO QB Doug Vella struggled a great deal in similar wet conditions in Hobart’s season finale against Rochester (ultimately being benched after getting his first career start), but I expect Vella will have learned from that experience and will have a better game on Saturday.
2. Another 100 yard day by Marlier – #2 had a career day against Union gaining 136 yards rushing and two touchdowns. The OL had a great day running a trap/zone blocking scheme that racked up 245 yards on the ground. The Statesmen need to test the somewhat undersized USMMA defensive line by mixing the run with either play action and/or short, high completion percentage passing plays
3. Protect Vella – The Statesmen gave up five sacks under pressure in the Union game and the Mariners excel in rushing the passer. That said the Hobart OL will need to improve their pass protection and/or simply dominate the LOS on running plays to limit the need for Vella to drop back and/or play out of the shot gun.
4. Stop Heimbrock and Ventre – Although Heimbrock is a very good RB, the Mariner rushing game has struggled at times this season. The USMMA were held to 62 yards rushing last week against Rochester and tallied -7 yards against Saint Lawrence. The Statesmen were burned on several long pass plays against Union where a speedy Justin Gallo out ran the Hobart secondary. Given the wet conditions on Saturday the Statesmen defensive backs will need to keep Mitchell and the USMMA receivers in front of them at all times. One slip or a missed tackle on the wet turf could easily result in long gains by the Mariners. The Hobart DL also needs to step up the pressure (they were held without a sack against Union) and force Ventre into rushing his passes – the JR QB does have seven interceptions on the season. Ventre is not a very mobile QB, having rushed for only 63 yards on 41 carries so far this season (1.5 yards per carry average). The Mariners are only converting third downs at a 33% rate this season. If Statesmen are successful, they can take advantage of the Mariners punting game which is second to last place in the LL – only 25.9 yards net on average.
Given these factors and Hobart’s 2-0 home record so far this season (and the fact that the Mariners have not won on a grass surface since November 6, 2004 OT victory at Saint Lawrence), I like the Statesmen to pull off a muddy, close game at the Boz by a score of 21-14.
You can tune into WEOS (www.weos.org) for Ted Baker’s call and track the game via “Live Stats” (http://campus.hws.edu/athletics/hobart/football/live/xlive.htm).
Kick-off is at 12:00 PM ET.
Also, don’t forget to catch up on all the LL action on Sunday night at 7:30 PM ET on “In the HuddLLe” (www.inthehuddlle.com).
Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!
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