Union Game Preview

“To say [the Union game on] October 10 is circled on my calendar is an understatement.” – JB, August 28, 2009.

The Hobart Statesmen (2-2, 1-1) travel to Schenectady, NY this Saturday to face the Liberty League (LL) leading Union College Dutchmen (3-1, 2-0). For all intents and purposes this contest against Union amounts to an “elimination” game for Hobart. The Dutchmen are the only LL team with a winning record (3-1) against the Statesmen since 2005, but Hobart has never lost two LL games in a season since the league was formed back in 2004. Last year, Union upset Hobart by a score of 38-35 in Geneva. The loss was Hobart’s only blemish on what would end up being an otherwise perfect regular season.

This season Union has a statistical advantage in virtually every key offensive, defensive and special team categories. Hobart does have a slight edge in a handful of significant ones though, including turnover ratio, time of possession and kickoffs.

Here’s the “tale of the tape”:

Union Hobart
Scoring Offense 6 8 League Rank
Scoring Defense 4 5 League Rank
Passing Offense 2 3 League Rank
Passing Defense 3 4 League Rank
Turnover Margin -4 +1 TO Margin
Rushing Defense 4 7 League Rank
Total Offense 3 6 League Rank
Total Defense 1 3 League Rank
Red zone Defense 3 7 League Rank
Third down conversions 2 1 League Rank
Time of possession 28:54 28:26 Average
Red zone TDs scored (6-14) (9-13) Percent
Kickoff coverage 8 1 League Rank
Punting 3 5 League Rank
PATs (9-9) (7-9) League Rank
Field Goals (3-3) (3-6) League Rank

The Dutchmen are lead on offense by #8 SO QB Drew Connolly who leads the LL in passing yards per game (219.5) and total offense (232.2 YPG). Connolly is third in the LL in pass efficiency (128) has thrown for 878 yards (51-100 for 51% completion percentage) including four touchdowns and five interceptions. Connolly’s favorite target is #7 JR WR Justin Gallo (320 yards receiving and three touchdowns). Gallo is second and fifth in the LL in average yards (80) and receptions (4.25) per game, respectively. Another big receiving threat for Union is New Orleans native #1 JR WR Jared Gourrier (165 yards receiving).

Although Connolly, Gallo and Gourrier are solid players, in my opinion, Union’s greatest offensive weapon is #10 JR RB Chris Coney. The JR from Fort Lauderdale has rushed for 467 yards (116.8 average good for third in the LL) with four touchdowns. Coney has also caught nine passes for 154 yards and one receiving touchdown. Last season Statesmen fans cringed at the sight of Coney crushing Hobart’s defense racking up 243 yards on 33 carries (long of 57) and three touchdowns.

On defense Union is lead by #34 SR LB John Peters (#1 in the LL with 57 tackles, ½ sack and six tackles for loss). Peters is not a one man gang as he has four teammates ranked in the LL’s top 20 (in average tackles per game) including #57 SO LB Rich Sixto (26 total), #43 SO LB Steve Modliszewski (25), #92 SR DL Peter Haviland-Eduah (24) and #18 SR DB Eric Baxter (22 tackles and two interceptions).

So based on this analysis, what hope for a victory on Saturday do the Statesmen have given all of Union’s statistical advantages? Basically it’s the “fine print.”

Not taking anything away from the Dutchmen’s early season success, but this team could just as easily be 1-3 as 3-1. Both of Union’s victories against Ithaca and Rochester literally came with seconds (17 and 10, respectively) to play in the game. Last week the Dutchmen had to lean on their defense to preserve a 21-17 win against WPI (3-2, 0-2). Union’s only loss was to a 1-3 Muhlenberg team.

Regardless, Hobart and Union rarely disappoint as this game has become somewhat of an annual event. Although the Dutchmen have gotten the best of the Statesmen in recent years, Hobart has added incentive to play spoiler this season a) because of last season’s game and b) the Statesmen are literally in a “must win” situation with one loss in LL play already.

Keys to the game:

1. Score points – I know this sounds overly simplistic but the importance of converting trips to the red zone cannot be understated for a Hobart team that is averaging only 6.5 points per game on the road. The only concern in an otherwise dominating performance against Saint Lawrence (2-2, 1-1) last weekend was the Statesmen kicking game. If SO PK Conor Callahan continues to struggle as he did last week (missing two PATs and one 30 yard field goal), expect Coach Cragg to put SR WR Paul Overdorf in to kick for the Statesmen. Last season Overdorf converted both of his field goal attempts (long of 29 yards) and was 14-of-15 on PATs.

2. Contain Coney – Last week against WPI Coney rushed for 153 yards on 31 carries with two touchdowns. The JR RB and also caught three passes for 66 yards. This game was Coney's ninth career 100 yard rushing effort, moving him into eighth place in the career rushing at Union with 2,217 yards. Coney was named LL co-offensive performer of the week for his efforts. You can bet the Statesmen closely studied the Muhlenberg-Union game tape as the Mules (1-3) were able to keep Coney in check to the tune of 60 yards on 20 carries.

3. Pressure Connolly/Coney - If the Statesmen have a chance to defeat Union it will mostly be based on how well the Hobart DL and LBs handle the Dutchmen OL and penetrating to the ball. If Coney gets outside the tackle box or the first Statesmen tackler doesn’t wrap him up on initial contact, you can pretty much kiss Hobart’s sixth consecutive NCAA playoff berth goodbye. Last weekend against Saint Lawrence the Hobart DL – especially JR DE Chris Luber – did an excellent job breaking up plays behind the line of scrimmage. The Statesmen D recorded eight tackles for loss including a season high six sacks. Two and a half of those sacks came from Luber to add to his five tackles in Hobart's 33-10 victory over the Saints (2-2, 1-1). This performance resulted in the most sacks by a Statesman since Kwame Lovell posted three at WPI on Sept. 29, 2007. Not surprisingly Luber was named LL co-defensive player of the week for his efforts last Saturday.

4. Make big plays – It wouldn’t be a Hobart-Union game if there are no fireworks. I fully expect Statesmen offensive coordinator Kevin DeWall ’00 to pull out all the stops in order to defeat the Dutchmen. The Hobart defense will need to capitalize on Union turnovers (which they have been prone to do so far in 2009) and I expect the DL and LBs to be blitzing/stunting aggressively all game.

Prediction:

I have not attended a “live” Hobart game since 1997. The last game I honestly remember is a 28-17 defeat at the hands of, you guessed it, Union. The Dutchmen came into the game highly ranked and Hobart lead at the half, but Union rallied to spoil the Statesmen’s upset bid.

Although I did pick Hobart to win 28-24 on “In the HuddLLe” (www.inthehuddlle.com), I am prepared for the Statesmen’s road struggles to continue on Saturday. That said if I am being “truly objective” I am going to pick Union to win 30-20 this weekend. I hope I am wrong, but unless the 2-0 Hobart “home team” shows up to Schenectady, it will be difficult for the Statesmen to overcome this very talented Union squad.

This year given a little luck in scheduling I will be in attendance (at least for the first half) for this year’s Hobart-Union match-up. To say I am excited to be there is an understatement.

Please tune into www.saratogamoon.com at 2 PM ET to hear me “go behind enemy lines” and join WABY/Union play-by-play man Frank Rossi and color man Tom Santa Barbara call the game.

Any Statesmen fans heading up to the game should look for Rich Barlette ’01 and the Hobart tail-gate which kicks off at 12:30 PM ET. Please contact Rebecca Frank at the Alumni House if you're interested in attending.