This Saturday at Boswell Field the Hobart Statesmen (1-2, 0-1) look to get back to .500, on the season and in the Liberty League (LL) standings, against the St. Lawrence University Saints (2-2, 1-0). Although Hobart has enjoyed a 17 game winning streak against the “Larries”, the Statesmen cannot afford to look past the Saints this year. SLU has already improved from last season’s 1-9 mark with a 41-22 win over the US Merchant Marine Academy (2-2, 0-1) last weekend. The Saints dominated the MMA on offense (380 to 202 yards) and held the Mariner rushing attack to -7 yards on the day. The win enabled the SLU to retain the “Hoffman Cup” which is awarded to the annual winner of this league rivalry game. Last season Hobart had to rally after being down 7-3 to SLU at the half before riding their defense to hold onto a hard fought and sloppy 16-10 victory in Canton, NY .
This year SLU is lead on offense by JR QB JP Kearney (43 for 82 with 448 passing yards including three touchdowns and seven interceptions) and SR RB Connor Hackett (199 yards on 64 carries for two touchdowns. Complementing Hackett’s “between the tackles” style of running is JR RB Eric Jones (115 yards on 18 carries). Jones took off on a 75 yard touchdown run last weekend in Kings Point.
On defense the Saints are lead by SR DT Gerard Bryant. The 6’2" 215lbs tackle from White Plains, NY has total 40 tackles (#2 in the LL), including five sacks (also #2 in the LL) and 15 tackles for a loss or TFL (#1 in the LL). JR CB Louis Jenkins is #1 in the LL in passes defended, breaking up six and collecting three interceptions (#2 in the LL).
A few key things to watch/listen for in Saturday’s game:
1. Turnovers/penalties – During his interview on “In the HuddLLe”, Connor Hackett emphasized the Saints’ need to avoid turnovers and limit mistakes. SLU has had a tough year so far with ball control resulting in a LL worst -8 turnover ratio as well as a 62 yards/game average penalty yards (a LL worst). Although Hobart is fared better on turnovers that SLU, the Statesmen are -1 in turnover margin and have only one interception on defense so far this season (compared to 19 from last year’s 2008 effort).
2. Time of possession – Hobart is 7th in the league in TOP (27:33). The defense has spent over 100 minutes on the field which has caught up to the Statesmen in the second half of their games this season. So far Hobart has only allowed 10 points in the first quarter, but has been outscored by a 20-3 margin in the third quarter.
3. 3rd down – Hobart leads the LL in 3rd down conversions and SLU leads the LL in allowing opponent 3rd down conversions. If the Statesmen are going to be successful in Saturday’s game they need to be more effective not only controlling the line of scrimmage, but also completing drives and scoring points. Hobart is last in the LL in Points For with 37 and the Statesmen have only notched three touchdowns in three games (a LL worst).
4. Sacks for/against – The Saints are #2 in the LL in sacking opposing quarterbacks but the Statesmen are equally effective (#2 in the LL) in defending their opponents pass rush. The Statesmen offense has only allowed four sacks for -17 yards, but some of this is attribute to the fact that Hobart QB Doug Vella is an effective runner (he leads the Statesmen with 45.7 yards per game average).
Bottom line and Prediction:
Hobart needs to score more points on offense and get more consistent at sustaining their possessions. In the Susquehanna game the Statesmen were successful in racking up yards, and ultimately out-gained the Crusaders, but Hobart ultimately failed in the red zone (as well as in the turnover battle) where it matters most. On defense, Kearney (leads the LL in interceptions thrown) provides the Hobart defense with an opportunity to return to their ball-hawking roots.
That said the Statesmen are 1-0 at home this season and have the added incentive and excitement surrounding the “camo jerseys” and related Wounded Warrior Project fundraising efforts. Also on the line is the opportunity to earn Coach Mike Cragg’s 100th career win.
Given the factors listed above as well as general belief that the Statesmen will rebound from last week’s loss, I’m going to predict a 21-14 win for Hobart .
Hobart-SLU game notes are up:
http://www.hwsathletics.com/documents/2009/10/2/SLU.pdf
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