The Hobart Statesmen (6-1, 4-1) will look to salvage clinching a share of the Liberty League championship and the accompanying NCAA tournament bid this Saturday when they face their oldest rival, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (4-4, 3-2). This game will be the 104th meeting of the two squads, and Hobart will look to regain the Centennial Cup which Rochester took home after defeating the Statesmen 36-35 in 2OT last season in Geneva. The all-time series is deadlocked at 48-48-7 and dates all the back to the 1892 season. For the Yellow Jackets this game will be on Senior Day and a win would give Rochester their first winning season since 2007.
The Yellow Jackets have had an up and down, injury-riddled season, but have won three of their last four games, including nearly defeating Alfred (6-3) on the last play of the game after being down 21-0 in the first half. The status of SR QB Braezen Subick (ranked third in the LL in passing efficiency and having thrown for 1298 yards, 10 TDs compared to seven INT) and SR RB Clarence Onyiriuka (fourth in the conference averaging 80.2 rush YPG and six rushing TDs) is still uncertain, but Rochester has found some strong contributors in their absence. SO QB Dean Kennedy has stepped in and played well against Alfred and Saint Lawrence (2-6, 1-4) passing for 371 yards and rushing for 102 yards with two passing TDs and three INTs. SR RB Chris Lebano and SR FB Joe Cicero have tallied 191 yards and two TDs in relief of Onyiriuka. Rochester’s top receiving threats are SO WR Garrett Kesel (330 yards and one TD), JR WR Thomas Hayes (482 yards and three TDs) and SR TE Thomas Norman (327 yards and two TDs but likely unavailable due to injury).
Defensively the Yellow Jackets are lead by SO OLB Tony Ortega who leads the LL in tackles per game (11.6 per game average). SO OLB Zach Cicero is fifth with 8.2 tackles per game. SR DE Chris Bickford has six sacks. Overall Rochester is the third ranked scoring defense (25.2 PPG allowed) and second in the LL against the run (118.8 YPG allowed).
On special teams the Jackets have one of the best kickers in the conference with JR Alex Antonucci going a perfect seven for seven (long of 42 yards) on FGs.
Keys to the game:
1. Better balance – Although Hobart will likely run into some challenges rushing the ball against the Yellow Jacket defense, I really felt like Coach DeWall’s over reliance on the pass (15 passes vs. five runs in the fourth quarter) cost the Statesmen the RPI game. Rochester has a strong outside rush, so look for Hobart to test the interior with dives and/or bubble screens to open up their offense. Last season both teams had nearly identical total yardage (328 for UofR compared to 322 for Hobart) and it was 2:1 passing to running which this game has the potential to be as well.
2. Third down and red zone conversions – Hobart led the LL in third down conversions, red zone offense and defense for most of the season (and still do save for red zone offense after Saturday) but only converted six of 13 third downs, went three of six in the red zone on offense and allowed TDs on all three of RPI’s red zone chances on Saturday. Rochester is the second ranked red zone offense, converting 85.7% of their chances (24 of 28) scoring 17 TDs and seven FGs. They also happen to be the second rated red zone defense, allowing 20 scores on 26 tries, including 15 TDs and stopping four of the nine FG attempts tried (which obviously was another huge factor in Hobart not being able to beat RPI).
3. Special teams / fourth down – The kicking game (two “blocked” kicks, neither of which had an upward trajectory) really cost the Statesmen last Saturday and so it may be incumbent on the offense to complete drives or go for it on fourth down. Hobart is seven for 15 (42.7%) on the season, including going one of three vs. RPI last Saturday.
Prediction:
Last Saturday’s result notwithstanding this team has better overall talent than many, if not all, of Hobart’s NCAA playoff teams from the last decade. That said I expect the team to rebound and clinch the NCAA bid (and guessing a fifth seed in the bracket, more on that later), but in a higher scoring affair in spite of the defensive strengths of both teams, Saturday in Rochester 33-30.
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