The Hobart College Statesmen (7-1) will travel south to play against the #7 ranked Wesley College Wolverines (9-1) this Saturday for a noon (eastern) kickoff at Scott D. Miller Stadium in Dover, DE. Wesley is coming off another successful campaign earning an at-large NCAA "Pool B" selection (which means they competed either as an independent or in a conference not eligible for an automatic bid, which in Wesley's case it was the former). Wesley is a very formidable team and has 15 NCAA postseason wins over the past six years, which is the third most in Division III (I am pretty sure most fans will be able to guess who's number one and two on that list). Last season Wesley advanced to the national semi finals, falling 27-7 to eventual National Champion University of Wisconsin-Whitewater (UWW).
The Wolverines are lead on offense by SR QB Shane McSweeney. The PA-native has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards this season, completing over 64% (132 of 206) of his passes for 18 TDs compared to only four INTs. McSweeney is also the second leading rusher on the team and has carried for 363 yards and 10 rushing TDs. Wesley's leading rusher is JR RB Askia Jahad. Jahad is a big back (6' 220 lbs) who has carried the ball 101 times for 685 yards and nine rushing TDs.
McSweeney has several targets in the passing game including SR TE Sean McAndrew (28 catches for 326 yards and six receiving TDs) and SO WR Jeremiah Howe (23 receptions for 288 yards). That said, the Wolverines are primarily a rushing team and have gained over 2,000 yards and 31 TDs on the ground this season.
The real strength of Wesley however is their defense which features at least three All-America first team caliber players. The Wolverine "D" has allowed a paltry 740 rushing yards and only three TDs all season. SR LB Jeff Morgan leads Wesley with 70 total tackles including 15.5 TFL and five and a half sacks. SR DE Chris Mayes has tallied 17.5 TFL and five and a half sacks as well. JR DE Devin Hardy has 11.5 TFL and seven and a half sacks. Overall the Wolverine defense has thrown opposing teams for -394 rushing yards on TFL (93 in total). On top of all that, Wesley's defensive players are also ball hawks, having picked off opposing QBs 14 times on the season. SR CB Dakevis Howard leads the team with four INTs, two which he returned for TDs, on the season.
Tale of the Tape
Defensively, Hobart actually matches up pretty well with Wesley, statistically speaking:
PPG Allowed - Hobart 14.88 / Wesley 10.8
YPG Allowed - Hobart 259.4 / Wesley 237.5
Rush YPG Allowed - Hobart 109.5 / Wesley 74
Sacks by - Hobart 24 (-161 yards) / Wesley 36 (-240 yards)
Rush TDs allowed - Hobart 5 / Wesley 3
Pass TDs allowed - Hobart 11 / Wesley 7
Red zone - Hobart 8 of 13 (7 TDs) / 10 of 18 (4 TDs)
The numbers show that Wolverines have more offensive firepower than the Statesmen. Wesley has scored 49 offensive TDs compared to Hobart's 38. Other areas they have better offensive numbers include:
PPG - Hobart 34.25 / Wesley 41.8
Rush TDs - Hobart 19 / Wesley 31
Pass TDs - Hobart 16 / Wesley 18
Red Zone - Hobart 26-36 (25 TDs) / Wesley 41-46 (35 TDs)
That said Hobart does have a slight per game advantage in:
Rush YPG - Hobart 210.6 / Wesley 207.8
Total YPG - Hobart 403 / Wesley 394.4
The Statesmen have done a better job than Wesley in time of possession (34:14 vs. 30:26), but that stat is a bit misleading given how quickly the Wolverine offense can score.
Special teams is another area of strength for the Wolverines over Hobart. They have a dependable kicker in JR Dan Tryon who's converted six of 11 FG attempts (one blocked) on the season and has a long of 45 yards. Wesley averages 35.5 yards per punt (compared to Hobart's 29.91). One of the Statesmen's strengths is punt coverage however, as Hobart has only allowed 2.44 yard per return on the season.
Keys to the Game:
1. Pass protection/ passing game success - The Statesmen's most experienced unit is their OL and this group will need to fortify itself against one of the most aggressive pass rushes in all of Division III. The Wolverine sack total (36) speaks for itself. While the status of fifth year SR C Kelvin Cruz is uncertain as of this writing, SR OL Jarrid Blades is a more than capable and experienced replacement. The health of JR QB Nick Strang is of greater concern given his removal from the Rochester game last Saturday due to a concussion. It's highly unlikely Hobart will have much success running against this defensive front so I expect a lot of short pass plays or check downs to the RBs and FBs given the injuries sustained at WR. SR co-captain Garth Muratori will likely be blanketed by Wesley's top cover corner and JR WR Junior Woodard has been banged up since the WPI game. Also, SO WR Yosh Karbonwiczak is out with a torn PCL. This means other (younger) receivers such as FY's WR Elvin Souffrant and/or Troy Robinson will need to step up to make plays for the Statesmen. Given the pass rush capabilities of Wesley, I suspect Hobart will keep their TE's in to block but it should be noted that JR Brent Matazinsky and FY Mike Berkowitz have scored one TD a piece in close range. While I criticized OC Kevin DeWall's reliance on the pass in the loss to RPI, I do think the Statesmen will need to pass for at least 200 yards to stay with the Wolverines. Good news for Hobart fans is that the OL has only allowed eight sacks (for -36 yards, basically one per game) on the year and Strang (when healthy) is fairly mobile, rushing for 289 yards on the season on 71 carries with four TDs.
2. Field position - Aside from having to step up in a receiving role, Souffrant will also fill in on the punting duties Saturday. He did a very good job against Rochester averaging just over 31 yards per punt, fielding several low snaps and pinning the Yellow Jackets behind their 20 yard line on a couple of occasions. Wesley's opponents have punted 62 times in 10 games, so it's likely we'll see six punts by the Statesmen in this one. It's imperative the FY from Randolph, MA has a good day so Hobart avoids giving the Wolverines a short field. It should also be noted that the Statesmen haven't attempted a fake punt all season. I am not advocating it necessarily as it could back fire against a team like Wesley, but given the circumstances....why not go for it?
3. Time of possession - This goes hand and hand with third and fourth down conversions. Hobart went two for 16 against Rochester last Saturday, lowering their overall third down conversion percentage to below 50% for the first time all season. The Wolverine defense is as stingy as they come and have allowed opponents to convert only 32% of the time on third down (48-148). Wesley is even better on fourth down, allowing only 22% (4-18). Assuming Coach Cragg doesn't have the luxury to attempt FGs given JR PK Stephen Bruening's struggles, the offense should expect to fight for every inch and view every possession as four down territory.
4. Hang tough on defense (especially in the second half) - Hobart's defense will have their biggest test of their season and if the offense struggles early on the Statesmen will need SR leaders such as co-captain Drake Woodard and ILB Reggie Robinson to step up under fire. FY DE Tyre Coleman can make a case for an All-America bid given he is second in DIII with 12.5 sacks (not to mention an impressive 17.5 TFL) and the Statesmen will need a few more in this game to have a fighting chance. The Wesley OL has allowed 14 sacks, so it's not like they are impregnable. I expect we'll see SO OLB Devin Worthington pressuring McSweeny on blitzes so the secondary will have to step up in coverage.
5. Keep it close (early) - Wesley has outscored their opposition 216 to 40 in the first half. In the Kean game, the Wolverines jumped to an early 6-0 lead but the Cougars fought back to take a 17-14 halftime advantage due to an early Wesley turnover. To stay in this one, Hobart will need to improve upon their red zone offense and take care of the ball. After scoring on 19 of 22 (86.36%) red zone attempts in their first five games, the Statesmen have gone seven for 14 (50%) in their final three.
Prediction:
I struggled with this one on Sunday's ITH and I still do. It's a "head / heart" thing, if that makes any sense? In my head I think Wesley will wear down the Statesmen given their overall size and speed advantages. The Wolverines just have a lot more athletes than Hobart and should be able to benefit on the Statesmen's injuries to key players and the struggles in the kicking game. While I can see a 28-14 Wesley win as being a sort of "moral victory" for Hobart, it would be a shame for a Statesmen squad with this much talent to end up 7-2. That said if Kean (9-1 and the NJAC Champ) can beat these guys 31-28, I don't see why Hobart can't either?!? In fact the Cougars fell short in almost every offensive and defensive category to the Wolverines but persevered due to committing one less turnover and other intangibles. One achilles heel I did notice is that Wesley is a highly penalized team, averaging 87.4 yards in penalties per game (!). With first downs at a premium, I'll happily take them anyway the Wolverines are willing to serve them up.
Either way it should be a great (defensive) ball game. Hopefully Hobart will be healthy enough on offense and play well on special teams to spell the Statesmen defense sufficiently. In the event Hobart pulled off the upset and Cal Lutheran defeats Linfield Saturday, a "dream scenario" of being able to see the Statesmen play in Los Angeles could unfold for me. No need for any Christmas presents for this fan if that happened!!
Go 'Bart!
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