Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Hobart Ranked #1 in First NCAA Regional Polls

The #9 Hobart Statesmen (8-0, 5-0) were ranked #1 in the first of two (published) NCAA Division III playoff ratings.  The rankings are listed below:

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2012/10/31/first-2012-ncaa-regional-rankings/

Ok great, but what does that mean?

On one hand it means that if Hobart wins out they will receive a very high tournament seed but on the other it probably won't be a #1 given how the DIII tournament actually works (more on that in a bit).

Right now the Statesmen have a relatively good strength of schedule (SOS) number and are unbeaten against regionally ranked opponents (RRO).  That said the Committee actually seeds the tournament by picking the four best teams in the country then builds out a bracket based on automatic qualifiers, SOS, results against RRO and other factors (e.g., at large bids, etc) - not by region (although considerations are made to avoid over 500 mile distance / flight games given the NCAA / budget for this tournament).  A few years ago, the NCAA approved the use of recent playoff performance to allow the Committee to differentiate undefeated teams for the purpose of bracketing/seeding.  Therefore, Hobart's SOS and (potentially) undefeated record will be slightly minimized by a more subjective process.  Although Hobart's history has included several playoff appearances, they haven't gone as deep as say a UMHB, Mount Union or Linfield.
I won't try to go into all the specifics but those of you who haven't seen it before, D3football.com has a great overview on how the DIII playoffs work here:

http://www.d3football.com/interactive/faq/playoffs

I'll go on record here that if Hobart goes 10-0 they will end up as the #2 in a bracket with (mostly) "eastern" teams.  A lot can happen in the next two weeks, but that's my prediction on this Halloween.

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