The #11 ranked Hobart Statesmen (6-0, 3-0) will face long time rival and the only Liberty League (LL) foe with a winning record against them in the last five seasons, the RPI Engineers (5-1, 3-1). Although Hobart controlled the rivalry for most of the last decade, including winning five straight from 2002-2007, the Engineers have won three out of five against Hobart, including the last two contests by a combined four points. Overall RPI leads the all time series, which dates back to 1910, 28-26-1.
Last year the Engineers mounted a comeback down 28-7 to spoil the Statesmen’s chances at a perfect regular season behind a 299 yard passing performance by the 2011 LL Offensive Player of the Year QB Mike Hermann. Hermann’s exploits accounted for virtually all of RPI’s total offense that day, leading to a 29-28 RPI victory at Boswell Field. The prior year Hobart attempted a comeback in Troy, NY but came up short, losing 24-21 on a 34 yard field goal as time expired. Hobart’s last victory at RPI was a 20-17 win in 2008 at the now retired “’86 Field.”
Standing in the way once again of a potential 7-0 record for the Statesmen is RPI SR QB Mike Hermann. The imposing 6’5” and 250 lbs Myrtle Beach, SC native has the size, accuracy (LL best 66.7 completion %), arm strength and overall athleticism that has attracted NFL scouts since the preseason. Hermann has scored 24 touchdowns (TDs) on the season, 18 passing (1st in the LL) and six rushing scores. He only needs 300 more passing yards to crack 2,000 and he still has three more games to go in the regular season.
The Engineers are first in total (454.3 YPG) and passing offense (302.2 YPG), mostly due to Hermman (283.3 YPG). Not surprisingly three of RPI receivers are in the top six in the LL with targets such as SR WR Steven Burpoe (433 RY / 86.6 YPG and three TDs), SR WR Nick Weber (505 RY / 84.2 YPG and six TDs) and JR WR Reggie Colas (384 RY / 64 YPG and six TDs).
To be fair, RPI isn’t just the “Mike Hermann show”. They are a SR-laden team (22 SRs) with sound defensive and special team players to complement the offense. SR LB Matthew Day is third in the LL with 51 total (8.5 TPG) tackles and SO DL Wade Hansen is tied for second in the LL with Hobart’s SO DE Tyre Coleman with six and half sacks and is sixth overall in the league with eight and a half tackles for loss (TFL). SO DB Nick Borkowski is tied for first in the LL with nine passes defended and four interceptions (INTs). JR DE Ted Abriel was named to the D3football.com “Team of the Week” for a 10 tackle (seven solo) performance in last Saturday’s 31-21 win over Rochester (3-3, 2-2). SR LB Austin Nelz was named the LL Defensive Player of the Week for his game high 12 tackles (seven solo), including a sack, half a TFL and a pass breakup against the Yellow Jackets.
Special teams are also a strong unit for the Engineers. SO PK Andrew Franks leads the LL in scoring by a kicker with 43 points going 25 of 28 on PATs and six of 10 on FGs. SR WR Austin Caswell is third in the LL in punting with a 37.8 (net) average per punt.
Keys to the Game:
1. Secondary has to be primary – There’s no nice way to put this, so I’ll just be blunt. Last season the Hobart defensive backfield absolutely stunk against RPI. Hermann torched them on TD passes of 46 and 62 yards that were well behind the Statesmen defense. The third RPI TD was set up by 21 yard Hermann to Colas pass on fourth down that was a backbreaker of sorts for Hobart. WEOS play-by-play man Ted Baker’s calls of “wide open” while describing the RPI receivers were plentiful that Saturday. Part of this was due to blown coverage, but it was also due to Hermann’s ability to elude would be Hobart tacklers. The Engineers have several receiving threats so it’s likely both outside and inside linebackers will be forced into pass coverage. While I do expect Hobart to blitz and disguise coverage, they will need to prove their nationally ranked total (second overall / 190.5 YPG allowed), pass (second overall 99.33 YPG allowed) and scoring defense (eighth overall / 11.5 PPG allowed) is as good as advertised.
2. Turnovers – There is no coincidence that Hobart’s back-to-back losses to RPI have been a direct result of having a -5 turnover margin (TOM) in those two contests. Hermann has not coughed up the ball against Hobart since a three INT performance in a 10-0 Statesmen shutout of the Engineers at (the old) Boswell Field in 2009, Hermann’s freshman year. Last weekend Rochester took advantage of five Rochester turnovers (pushing their TOM to +6 on the season). Hobart will need to take better care of the ball (the Statesmen are -2 in TOM this season) to avoid another disappointing loss to the Engineers.
3. Win the LOS –
a. Although Hobart did have a good number of TFL (nine) in last season’s contest, they were for minimal yardage (-20 yards). The Statesmen only sacked Hermann once. Hobart will need to pressure Hermann but not allow their assignments to break down due to over pursuit. This season the Statesmen are ranked seventh and tenth in the country with 3.83 sacks and 9.17 TFL per game so I fully expect to hear Coleman, JR OLB Devin Worthington and others to get into the RPI backfield Saturday.
b. Conversely if the Statesmen OL can negate the Engineer pass rush (the Statesmen are first in the LL, seventh in the nation in sacks allowed meaning opposing pass rushers have sacked SR QB Nick Strang only seven times this season or a half sack per game average), Hobart could look to test RPI’s last ranked passing defense which has allowed a LL worst 230.3 YPG.
c. Hobart comes into this contest as the third best rushing team (ranked 32nd in the nation) in the LL averaging 230 YPG. SR RB Bobby Dougherty has moved to the top of the LL in rushing, averaging 95.17 YPG and a LL leading 11 rushing TDs. RPI brings the second ranked rushing defense to the game (Hobart is first allowing 91.2 YPG) and will test the Statesmen OL. The Engineers have only allowed 120.3 YPG and 10 rushing TDs on the season. Still, RPI did allow 352 rushing yards to the Merchant Marine Academy (3-4, 1-3) so it is possible the Statesmen could look to deploy a similar rush heavy strategy in this contest (to control the clock and keep Hermann off the field) given their success running the football so far this season.
Prediction:
This is a de facto playoff / elimination game for RPI. Their surprising 34-31 loss to the Merchant Marine (3-4, 1-3) puts them in jeopardy of missing the NCAA playoffs with one more loss, especially given a nine game schedule. In spite of all of Hermann’s accolades, he has never lead RPI to the NCAA tournament. A win over Hobart would put the Engineers in control of their destiny, especially with Union (3-3, 3-0) still on the schedule.
For the Statesmen this game is not just about avenging two painful losses, it’s also about proving they can learn from past mistakes, missed opportunities and finish key LL games. Hobart has not run the LL table since 2004 and Hermann has had the Statesmen’s number of late which is a key reason many pundits (including D3football.com) will likely pick RPI to upset the Statesmen.
The running game may struggle and if Strang has an off day it could be a rough game for the Statesmen. Still, I like Hobart coming off the bye week and having a few surprises up their sleeves. RPI will have success in this game, but I think the Statesmen will make enough plays to earn a hard fought win, 28-24. Kickoff is slated for noon and coverage will be on 89.7 WEOS FM (www.weos.org).
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