It’s a battle of Liberty League (LL) unbeaten teams when the #10 ranked Hobart Statesmen (7-0, 4-0) take on their top rival Union College Dutchmen (4-3, 4-0). The Dutchmen and Statesmen rivalry began back in 1896 with Union having a 50-43-2 overall series advantage. Hobart has won two in a row against the Dutchmen including last season’s 41-24 contest in Schenectady.
Union had a number of key offensive players graduate after the 2011 season and struggled out of the gate in 2012, losing two games on a field goal and a botched punt / overtime game. The Dutchmen have been perfect in LL play however setting up this key matchup with the Statesmen in what is for all intents and purposes the de facto LL Championship game.
Union is lead on offense by SO QB Connor Eck. The Rye, NY native has had an impressive start to his collegiate career going 84 of 151 (55.6%) for 1125 yards (160.7 YPG) with 10 touchdowns (TDs) compared to only two interceptions (INTs). Eck is a mobile QB and has gained 290 yards on 99 carries (41.4 YPG) and one rushing TD.
Eck leads a Dutchmen unit that ranks fourth in the LL in total offense (371.1) and rushing (204.4 YPG). His favorite targets are SO WR Kyle Reynolds (22 receptions for 274 yards and six TDs) and big (6’3” 250 lbs) SR TE Eric Zavadsky (10 receptions for 127 yards and three TDs).
Leading Union’s rushing attack is JR RB T.J. Franzese. The Don Bosco Prep alum is second in the LL in rushing with 644 yards on 131 carries (92 YPG) with six rushing TDs. Franzese is also a receiving threat and has caught 12 passes for 104 yards on the season. SR FB Tim Hersey is a solid blocker and has added 215 yards on 35 carries with two TDs.
Defensively Union is second only to Hobart in scoring (20.4 PPG allowed) and total defense (289 YPG and 18 TDs allowed). The Dutchmen are lead by SR LB and Co-Captain Noah Joseph who is second in the LL with 69 tackles (9.9 TPG) on the season. SR DB Jafar Johnson is tied for first in the LL with four INTs on the season and is second in passes defended with nine (1.29 PG).
Keys to the Game:
1. Turnovers – There is no coincidence that Union’s four game win streak is directly correlated to their ability to create turnovers. The Dutchmen are 21st in the nation and first in the LL with a +9 turnover margin (1.29 per game) and have been an incredible +14 over the last four LL games. Case in point was Union intercepting Rochester JR QB Dean Kennedy four times last Saturday en route to a 20-7 victory over the Yellow Jackets (3-4, 2-3). Last season the Statesmen won the turnover battle (+1) and a key takeaway was a 15 yard fumble recovery for TD by SO FS James Smith which pushed the Statesmen’s lead to 27-17 right before halftime.
2. Win the LOS – Although many of Union’s offensive specialists were mostly newcomers going into the 2012 season, the one area where the Dutchmen returned a fair amount of experience (two SRs and two JRs) and size (266 lbs on average with three OL over 270 lbs) was on their OL. The battle between Hobart’s DL and LBs and the Union OL will likely dictate the result of this game. Last season the Statesmen sacked Eck’s predecessor an incredible eight times for -62 yards, lead by JR OLB Devin Worthington with a game high 10 tackles and three and a half sacks. The team that’s outrushed the other has won the game (only exception to this rule was in 2009 when Union’s Justin Gallo broke program records with an eight catch, 246 yard and three TD performance) in the past five seasons. Statistically Hobart has an edge in both rushing offense and rush defense, the latter of which the Statesmen are ranked 11th in the nation allowing only 79.86 YPG.
3. Third down – A key stat that was somewhat overlooked / overshadowed given all the sacks in last season’s contest was third down conversions. Hobart converted nine of 15 (60%) compared to Union’s three of 13 (23%). Defensively, the Statesmen have only allowed 23 third down conversions out of 97 on the season (23.7%) while converting 50 of 100 attempts (50%) on offense. Union is 43 of 99 (43.4%) on third down this season and allowing 38.9% (35 of 90) on defense. The Dutchmen’s most lopsided loss of the season was back in Week 2 when the Utica Pioneers (5-2) converted 77% of their third downs (10 of 13) compared to Union’s 43% (six of 14).
4. Make history – Hobart has an opportunity Saturday to be the first Statesmen football team to go 8-0 since the 1954 Hobart squad (which included a 32-21 win over Union). The last time they had this same chance was back in 2006, but lost to Union 31-14 at (the old) Boswell Field. To be fair, the 2006 Union team was 6-1 going into that contest (and had gone 10-1 the season before). Still, you have to think Union’s Coach Audino is harkening back to prior Dutchmen upsets (such as 2008’s 38-35 win when a 1-3 Union team knocked off a 4-0 Hobart squad) of the Statesmen for Saturday’s contest.
Prediction:
Last year being an exception, games against Hobart and Union in recent years have been generally within three to 10 points of each other. The Statesmen have to be very confident given last weekend’s dominating performance over a solid RPI (5-2, 3-2) team. Still, Union has played the role of spoiler in prior seasons and hasn’t lost three games in a row to Hobart in almost a decade (2002-2004) and you have to back to the 1970’s for Hobart’s last significant winning streak over the Dutchmen given Union beat Hobart 16 straight times from 1982-1997.
The Statesmen are the favorites, but you have to throw out records when old rivals meet up, especially in what effectively counts as a championship / playoff elimination game. Ultimately I think Hobart’s defense will create problems for Union’s young QB and the Hobart offense to have success running the ball with an occasional pass to keep the Dutchmen defense honest (not to mention test their somewhat average pass defense). Union has allowed twice as many TDs (20 vs. 10) than Hobart, but their red zone defense is a LL best 54.5% (12 of 22 with 11 TDs allowed). The Dutchmen have also feasted on turnovers as of late, so if the Statesmen can keep possession, they can wear Union down.
Although my superstitious self hates that the Statesmen are 0-2 in the last two Union games I have attended in person (28-17 and 31-21 losses in 1997 and 2009, respectively), I am fairly certain my presence will have no, if any, impact on this game (save for the national anthem of course).
I’ll take the Statesmen to win 31-14.
Kickoff is at 12 noon and the game will be covered on WEOS FM (www.weos.org) and my ITH co-host Frank Rossi's WABY stream (www.ustream.tv - look up by Frank's name or Union Football).
No comments:
Post a Comment