The eighth ranked Hobart Statesmen (9-0, 6-0) look to close out their first ever perfect 10-0 regular season in team history this Saturday at Boswell Field on Senior Day. Their opponents are their oldest rivals, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets (4-4, 3-3) who will challenge Hobart for the Centennial Cup which the Statesmen reclaimed last season after a 24-10 victory at Fauver Stadium. The Statesmen lead the all-time series by a narrow margin, 49-48-7.
The Yellow Jackets come into the contest riding a big 42-15 victory over the WPI Engineers (2-7, 1-5) where the Rochester defense forced five turnovers. Still, the2012 season has been an up and down one for the Yellow Jackets and their record (and statistics) reflects the same.
Rochester scores about the same number of points (23.9 PPG) as they give up (22.9 PPG). Same goes for yardage gained (354.4 YPG) and allowed (368.5 YPG). Touchdowns (TDs) scored and allowed are dead even at 24 apiece.
What stands out when looking at the Yellow Jackets is their evolution to a pure passing offense under JR QB Dean Kennedy. The Boston-area native ranks second in the Liberty League (LL) averaging 225.4 YPG passing and 260.8 YPG in total offense, accounting for 12 passing TDs compared to nine interceptions (INTs). Kennedy's top target is SR WR Thomas Hayes who averages four catches a game, 66.9 YPG receiving and has scored three TDs this season. JR WR Ken Apostolakos has hauled in five TD catches this season as well.
The defense has always been a strength of Rochester and this year it appears to be the same, with one notable exception. The Yellow Jackets, lead by JR LB Tony Ortega (third in the LL overall with 8.8 tackles per game) and JR LB Zach Cicero (7.5 TPG) have the second best passing defense, allowing only 162.2 YPG and 11 TDs. Hobart by comparison has allowed 137.2 YPG and nine passing TDs this year. The Yellow Jackets also have the second best red zone defense, allowing opponents to score 73.1 % of the time (19-26 with 17 TDs allowed).
Where Hobart can exploit the Yellow Jackets defensively is on the ground. Rochester is allowing a LL worst 206.2 YPG rushing. To be fair, the Yellow Jackets have only allowed 13 rushing TDs which is tied for third place in the LL behind the Statesmen (eight) and Union (nine).
Keys to the game:
1. You better run - As cited above, Hobart's OL and the Rochester DL is a mismatch. The Yellow Jackets have suffered through some injuries but will see former LL DPOY DE/OLB Brendan Pidgeon on the field for his final collegiate game which will help their cause. Still, I expect a big rushing performance, especially after last week's sluggish showing against Saint Lawrence.
2. Strictly business - There will be a lot of emotions and history tied to this game. It's Senior Day for 14 Statesmen players and their families including:
#2 WR Jay Cronze
#9 QB Kelly Olney
#10 QB Nick Strang*
#26 RB Bobby Dougherty*
#40 LB Nick Zapp*
#45 LB Andrew Klindera*
#72 DT Nick Auriemma
#76 OL Tyler Garvey
#79 OL Art Garvey*
#81 WR Junior Woodard
#85 TE Brent Matazinsky
#88 TE Andrew Zdrojewski
#89 WR Paul Ashburn
#91 DE Kees Nordin
* = indicates team Co-Captain
Add in the fact it's an opportunity for the program to notch its first 10th regular season in 119 years, and you've got a big day.
3. Tackles for Touchdowns - The Statesmen will donate all funds provided from this game to support the local "Happiness House" which supports area children with autism and other special needs. I am donating to the cause and hope you will consider doing so as well. Check out the SAA website at hwsathletics.com for more information.
Prediction:
Rochester's passing game could be trouble for Hobart, but the Yellow Jackets are relatively one dimensional (only averaging 105 YPG rushing) offensively. This game will be a physical one and likely will be played under light rain, which should keep it more of a defensive battle.
I'll take Hobart to win it in a closer game than some may expect, 27-14, to finish a perfect 10-0. I'll be speaking with the Division III Football Championship Committee Chair, Brad Bankston, Sunday night on ITH (www.inthehuddlle.com) about the Statesmen's draw in the NCAA tournament. For the record most pundits, D3football.com included, predict Hobart to end up the number two seed in the "Mount Union Bracket". We'll see if that comes to pass Sunday.
First up is Rochester and retaining the Centennial Cup...
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