The Tigers are currently ranked number 24 in the D3football.com poll but are being given a strong vote of confidence by the pollsters based on their past playoff successes (20-12 all time vs. Hobart’s 5-8) and the impressive 52-38 comeback and defeat of former number 12 Heidelberg (9-2) last Saturday on the road.
Wittenberg has a very balanced offense that is ranked 13th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging an impressive 40.18 PPG. The Tigers are lead on offense by JR QB Reed Florence who has gone 186 of 298 (62.4 completion %) while passing for 2710 yards and 28 touchdowns (TDs) compared to only 10 interceptions (INTs). Florence ranks 12th in the nation in passing efficiency (163.1) and 25th in total offense (294.1 YPG). A mobile QB, Florence has rushed for seven TDs and 502 yards on the season.
Florence’s primary target is JR WR Brendon Cunningham (59 catches for 875 yards and 10 TDs). Desi Kirkman is also a key target, hauling in 41 passes for 542 yards and six scores. Kirkman also handles both punt (8.6 YPR) and kick return (19.2 YPR) duties as well for the Tigers. JR Stephen Zumdick, All-NCAC First Team TE, may be a big target at 6’ 4” 245 lbs, but appears to be primarily a blocker only having caught only eight passes for 132 yards and a TD.
FY RB Jimmy Dehnke was named the NCAC “Newcomer of the Year” after rushing for 827 yards and 11 TDs. He has also caught 11 passes for 155 yards and a TD. Overall the FY is second only to Florence in total offense for the Tigers.
Defensively, Wittenberg is lead by JR LB Spencer Leno with 109 tackles, including five TFL, a half sack, one interception return (of 54 yards) and two forced fumbles. SR DL Jon Daniels (58 tackles, six and a half TFL and one interception) and SR DB Jamaal Everett (50 tackles, two interceptions, eight pass break ups and 10 passes defended) were All-NCAC First Team nominees. JR DB Heath Eby leads the team with four INTs, one returned for a TD, to go along with a fumble recovery for a TD and 40 tackles.
On special teams the Tigers have a strong kicker in SR PK Sean Williams who has converted 11 of 13 FG attempts (84.6%) with a long of 41 yards. Williams has also successfully made 51 of 54 point after attempts (94.44%). Wittenberg’s punter is SO LB Nick Gibson who averages 35.7 YPP. Florence has done a couple of quick kicks himself this season, kicking twice for 61 yards and a long of 47 yards.
Keys to the game:
1. Let it snow: A tale of the tape (which you can find here):
http://static.psbin.com/1/3/4bozhe4pz852tq/hobart.pdf
shows a Hobart team that is a strong rushing offense (241.5 YPG) vs. a tough Wittenberg rushing defense (113.45 YPG allowed). The Tigers are an excellent passing team (259.2 YPG) against a strong Statesmen passing defense (136.82 YPG allowed). Hobart’s most untested unit is the defensive secondary and the size (Cunningham is 6’3” 220 lbs) and speed of the Tiger receivers is a concern.
On the flip side, Wittenberg has little in ways of a pass rush (averaging less than two sacks per game) whereas it’s one of Hobart’s biggest strengths (sixth in the nation in sacks per game) lead by SO DE Tyre Coleman.
The Tigers and Florence had their vaunted passing attack shut down to the tune of only 92 yards in their loss to Wabash, but that was nearly two months ago now. Still, I expect a Hobart to show Florence a few different looks and potentially drop JR OLB Devin Worthington back into coverage from time to time like they did against RPI and SR QB Mike Hermann earlier in the season. Then again, passing the ball may go completely out the window for both teams because of “Jack Frost”. The high for Saturday is scheduled to be 33 with a 50% chance of snow with winds as high as 21 MPH. Hobart won a "snow bowl" in the playoffs vs. then MAC champion Lycoming 33-15 back in 2008.
2. YAC – Assuming Wittenberg stacks eight in the box to stop the likes of SR RB Bobby Dougherty, JR RB Steven Webb, SO FB Dominque Ellis and FY FB Christopher Holoman, SR QB Nick Strang will need a receiver other than SR WR Junior Woodard (who needs one more catch to tie Dan Suozzi ’05 to tie the all time record for consecutive games with a reception) to step up and have a big game. That other receiver could be one of many – JR WR Yosh Karboniczak, SO TE Mike Berkowitz, SO WR Elvin Souffrant, etc. As a friend of mine said, “I think this will be a test of our speed. Sure the OL can physically impose their will at times, but I think this is going to be about our speed rush on D and [the] ability [of players like] Woodard, Yosh, Cronze, Souffrant and Webb to make plays on the perimeter and downfield; as opposed to last week, where we [mostly] played in between the tackles.” While the weather may put a damper on both teams ability to make plays on the perimeter, a slip on the snow here or there could result in a short run becoming a long one.
3. TOP – A big reason for Wittenberg’s loss to Wabash was a nine-plus minute Little Giant drive in the fourth quarter to put the game away. Hobart has averaged more than four and a half more minutes of possession in games than the Tigers. I expect OC Kevin DeWall to look to shorten the game by long, methodical drives that will capitalize on the Statesmen’s size advantage on the OL. To be fair, Wittenberg has some big guys on the DL such as 6’ 2” 280 lbs JR DLmen Josh Montgomery and 6’ 3” 245 lbs Justin Bartlett. Still, the Hobart offense have found ways to grind out long drives all season and I expect them to do so again Saturday.
4. Make / avoid the big play – If the Statesmen defense can avoid quick, deep TD passes (see last season’s playoff game vs. Shane McSweeny and Wesley) and the offense hangs onto (i.e., doesn't turnover) the ball, Hobart will have a good chance to win the game.
5. Beat the Underdog By Being the Underdog - There's a perception, and one that's been backed up for several years now in D3, that the "East" simply isn't good enough to compete with (the better) teams from the Midwest. A win by Hobart, while expected on one hand due to their #2 bracket seeding and higher overall national ranking, would be big for the Statesmen and by extension teams from the "East Region." Wittenberg has a strong playoff and national pedigree. A win over the Tigers and would be quite a notch in the Hobart belt if they beat them Saturday.
Prediction:
D3football.com tabbed this as a “very winnable” game for Wittenberg. A subsequent article on the same site indicated how the Tigers have effectively gone into “playoff mode” football since the loss to Wabash back in early October. The formula has worked so far for Wittenberg, scoring no less than 35 points a game and showing a ton of heart in coming back down 21-3 and then again down 31-13 against higher ranked Heidelberg last weekend. The Tigers have proven to be “road warriors” as well going 7-0 on the season away from Springfield, OH.
The Statesmen have the opportunity to make history in advancing to the National Quarterfinals for the first time in program history (not to mention a historic 12th win). The Tigers advanced to the “Sweet 16” back in 2009. Hobart has yet to lose a home playoff game since 2002 but they have never hosted a second round game there yet either. The Statesmen should be ready but the home field advantage may be somewhat mitigated by the fact its Thanksgiving weekend and students are on break.
Overall I think the long bus ride (473 miles); snow and a brand new opponent (that has a great defense) will slow down the Tigers just enough to give Hobart a chance to move on. I’ll take the Statesmen in a hard fought battle, 35-31, to advance to the National Quarterfinals.
Regardless of the outcome, we’ll recap Saturday’s game at 7:30 PM on www.inthehuddlle.com. Go ‘Bart!
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