The seventh ranked Hobart Statesmen (10-0, 7-0) will host the Washington and Lee Generals (8-2, 6-1) of the Old Dominion Athletic Conference (ODAC) this Saturday at Boswell Field in the first round of the Division III NCAA Football Playoffs.
This battle of conference champions effectively pits teams with well defined strengths. For W&L, they bring the number one ranked rushing offense (381 YPG) in the country to Geneva to face the fifth ranked Hobart defense (229.8 YPG allowed). The Generals are the fourth option offense (third "pure" triple option team) that the Statesmen will have faced this season. Hobart has had success stopping the triple option, especially against Springfield (who came into the game averaging 321 YPG but were held to 150 rushing yards by the Statesmen D) and WPI (held to only 55 rushing yards in a 61-8 loss). Overall the Statesmen are 14th in the nation in rushing defense allowing only 84.3 YPG to opposing offenses.
This is the second trip to playoffs in three seasons for W&L. The Generals' rushing attack is lead by a trio of SR RBs including Luke Heinsohn (116.8 YPG, second in the nation in scoring with 18 PPG), Brett Murray (73.3 YPG), and Sasha Vandalov (63.22 YPG). JR QB Nick Lombardo (164.8 YPG in total offense) is in his first year running the offense which is typically run from a pistol formation or true shotgun snap from center. Like most option teams, W&L rarely passes (69.3 YPG) so I expect Hobart to “put eight in the box.”
The W&L defense is a “bend but don't break” type of unit allowing 366.4 YPG and 23 PPG. Although the Generals are an option squad, most of the ODAC teams are “pass happy offenses,” and two of W&L's three non-conference foes (F&M and Centre) played heavy pass or at least balanced offensive attacks. Point being, the Generals' defense is well acquainted with more traditional offenses (like Hobart’s).
Overall the Generals are a tough and disciplined team (i.e., not heavily penalized and rarely turnover the ball). W&L is a better home than road team. In the last 3 years they have dropped only one home game, the 2010 season opener, but have gone 5-4 on the road the last two years. That said the magic number for the Statesmen in this contest is “400.” Since the 2010 season, W&L is undefeated in games when they have amassed 400 or more yards of rushing offense, scoring at or over 50 PPG in these contests.
Keys to the Game:
1. Go airborne – Kind of ironic that I harped on running the ball during the regular season and am changing my tune for the playoffs, right? Well, W&L’s pass defense is average at best, allowing 210.1 YPG through the air. Although we won’t likely know the status of SR QB Nick Strang (ranked ninth in the nation in passing efficiency with a 167.77 rating) prior to this weekend, I am confident that SR QB Kelly Olney could equally have a good passing performance against the Generals' secondary. It will be cold in Geneva (around 40 degrees) but also clear which are good conditions for playoff (and passing the) football. Although Coach Cragg often likes to run the ball to shorten games, I could see Coach DeWall looking to hit a few long passes early on to loosen up the Generals' and get them to back off the line of scrimmage.
2. TFL – The W&L OL rarely allows sacks, partially due to the option but also due to solid play on the LOS. You’ll know that Hobart is winning the game if SO DE and LL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) Tyre Coleman is wreaking havoc in the Generals' backfield. The Statesmen average over eight TFL per game.
3. TOP – The best way to beat a triple option offense is to win time of possession. Hobart averages 34:37 in TOP and a similar number in Saturday’s contest should help the Statesmen come out with a win.
Prediction:
I meant to do a separate entry on this earlier in the week but events conspired against it, so I’ll have to mention it here. The Statesmen cleaned up the LL conference awards placing nine players on the first team offense and defense as well as 11 others on the second and honorable mention squads. The coaching staff was similarly recognized for the best regular season in Hobart history and their first 7-0 conference mark since 2004.
Needless to say, this is a special Statesmen team and one which deserves its number two seed in this year’s NCAA playoff bracket. The Generals are not an easy draw, but they run a system Hobart has had a lot of success against this year and in prior seasons. Ultimately, regardless of who starts at QB for the Statesmen Saturday, I like Hobart to win this one 35-21 and advance to the second round hosting the winner of Saturday’s Heidelberg vs. Wittenberg game.
W&L looks to be a smaller team with only a handful of players over 250. Hobart has almost as many 300 pounders as they have players 250+. Hopefully we can wear them down and control the line of scrimmage, the source of so much success this year.
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