NCAA Rd 2 / SJFC Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen (10-0) will host a familiar foe in the second round of the NCAA Division III Football Championship tournament this Saturday at Boswell Field. The Saint John Fisher College Cardinals (SJFC) will make the short trip from Rochester, NY down the NYS Thruway to Geneva. The Cardinals (9-2) upset the ninth ranked John Carroll University Blue Streaks (9-2) in Cleveland, OH last weekend thanks to causing six turnovers, including four interceptions (INTs), to earn a 25-16 first round upset on a cold and snowy day.

Hobart defeated the Cardinals soundly, 56-20, back in the 2011 season but SJFC won the last time they faced off at the “Boz” spoiling the 2010 Homecoming game I attended in person, 34-14. The Cardinals and Statesmen last met in the NCAA playoffs back in 2007, which was a convincing 24-7 win by Fisher.

Scouting the Cardinals:

This season the Cardinals are scoring 32.7 PPG while allowing 20.4 PPG on defense. Their offense is weighted towards the pass, having gained 2,912 yards this season via the air. SJFC averages 412.6 YPG on offense and have scored exactly 23 rushing and passing TDs each.

Leading the Fisher offense is SR QB Tyler Fenti. A dual threat, he’s gone 204 of 311 (~66% completion rate) for 2,560 yards and 21 passing TDs compared to eight INTs. Fenti has added 370 rushing yards and five TDs on the ground as well. SR RB Cody Miller is the Cardinals’ feature back and he has gained 1,006 yards on the season, scoring 15 rushing TDs.  Fenti’s top targets are SR WR Kevin Francis (54 receptions for 851 yards and 8 TDs) and JR WR Nathan Nigolian (50 catches for 738 yards and seven TDs).

The SJFC defense is led by a talented LB corp, headed by JR LB Sean Preish with a team high 110 tackles including 14 TFL, seven sacks and an INT. SR LB Mike Donitzen has 64 tackles, 11 TFL, three sacks and two INTs. SR DB Mike Guinta has added 57 tackles, three TFL and a team high six INTs.

The Cardinals special teams unit is led by SR PK Brendan Carey. Carey has converted four of eight FGs with a long of 39 yards. JR WR / P Ryan Sweet handles punting duties and has kicked 41 punts for a 38.3 YPP average.

Keys to the game:

1. Time of Possession – In both of Fisher’s losses this season, the Cardinals only held the ball for 25 and 22 minutes, respectively. Effectively the best defense for the SJFC offense is to keep them on the sidelines. Hobart can take a page from the Salisbury (6-4) game where the Gulls racked up an amazing 451 rushing yards en route to a 42-35 win that wasn't as close as that final score appears. A heavy dose of running plays can wear down the Cardinals “D” and avoid TFL and/or sacks and INTs which are their bread and butter. SJFC has racked up 33 sacks on defense this season (three per game on average) and they will bring a great deal of pressure.

2. Win the Second and Fourth Quarters – Going into halftime with momentum will be critical in this game. Fisher has outscored opponents 145-40 in this frame during the season.  Likewise, the Cardinals have been strong closers, outscoring their opposition 107-59 in the fourth.  If the Statesmen can set the tone of the game in the first and third quarters, and force the Cardinals to play from behind, Hobart has a good chance to win and advance to the Quarterfinals.
 
3. Play Smart - These programs have arguably two of the best in the East Region for about a decade. Given the profile and proximity of the schools there's a natural local rivalry. Fisher can be chippy at times and were called for several (11 for -111 yards in) penalties in their game against JCU. Hobart has seen this with other opponents and will have to avoid any extra cirricular activity after the whistle. The Cardinals are an experienced team, so they'll pick their spots and take calculated risks. I don't see much rattling them, so Hobart will need to be equally firm in this game.

4. Forget Total Yardage, Focus on the Final Score - It's possible Fisher may out-gain the Statesmen. Their passing offense is very strong and will likely eat up a lot of yardage on Saturday, especially given the size and speed of their WRs. Ithaca and Salisbury had success in limiting the Cardinals running game, forcing Fisher to beat them with the pass. In the game against Ithaca (9-2), that lead to two Cardinal INTs.

5. Red Zone Defense - Points will be at a premium in this contest so any trips to the red zone that don't produce a TD are wins for the defense.  Against Ithaca, for example, Fisher went three of five in the red zone (60%) and ended up losing that game by three points (25-22).

Prediction:

The weather for Saturday is a high of 32, mostly cloudy with 0% chance of rain/snow, and light wind 8 mph. This forecast is actually pretty nice for Upstate NY in late November. I don't suspect the conditions to really affect the game that much and look for Hobart to try and establish their running game while taking a few shots downfield when the right matchups present themselves, like they have all season.

The Cardinals defense is aggressive so the Statesmen OL will need to do their best to open up running lanes and give JR QB Patrick Conlan or Kyle Bayly time in the pocket. Conlan should be able to play, but either way, I see Hobart sticking to what got them this far - a strong rushing attack, tough defense and opportunistic special teams.

This will be the toughest opponent the Statesmen will have faced to date, but Fisher has some chinks in their armor. To their credit, they've played a tougher schedule and beaten better teams than Hobart has this season. Still, the IC and SU losses point to their weaknesses and that will help the Statesmen coaching staff with their game plans.

I'll take Hobart to eke out a hard fought 32-21 victory Saturday that won't be decided until the fourth quarter - something that hasn't happened all year.

Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!