The seventh ranked Hobart College Statesmen locked up their third consecutive Liberty League (LL) championship last Saturday at Boswell Field. The Statesmen’s (8-0, 6-0) goal this weekend is to finish their second consecutive undefeated regular season (and only the third unbeaten regular season in last the 57 years).
Standing in Hobart’s way are their oldest rivals, the University of Rochester Yellow Jackets.
Rochester (5-3, 3-2) was tripped up last weekend in a 31-21 loss to WPI (3-6, 2-3) so instead of this game being for the LL title, it’s really for pride and the Centennial Cup trophy. For the Statesmen, however, this game is more than about a trophy.
Last season the Statesmen beat Rochester in Geneva on Senior Day, 43-24, to clinch their first 10-0 regular season in team history. Although Hobart limited the Yellow Jackets to only 45 rushing yards, then JR QB Dean Kennedy passed for 220 yards and three TDs to keep Rochester (it was only 29-24 Hobart with 9:33 in the fourth quarter) in the game.
This year the Yellow Jackets bring a high octane offense and hard hitting defense to the table. Now SR QB Dean Kennedy leads the LL with 1,596 passing yards (good for basically 200 YPG) and has tossed 11 passing TDs. Kennedy is a mobile QB and is fifth in the LL with around 71 rushing YPG and five rushing TDs. This combination makes Kennedy number one in total offense with 270.2 YPG average.
Kennedy’s top targets are SR WR Thomas Hayes who leads the LL with six RPG. Hayes has caught 42 passes for 435 yards and four scores on the season. SO WR Derek Wager is another receiving threat with 29 receptions for 477 yards and five scores. RBs Myles Austin and Nick Perpignan have gained 409 and 213 rushing yards, including seven and three rushing TDs, respectively.
Rochester’s defense boasts arguably three of the best LB’s in the entire LL. SR LB Tony Ortega leads the LL with a 10.4 TPG average and leads the LL with 83 total tackles. SR LB Zach Cicero and SO LB Thomas Marone have 53 tackles a piece. JR DE J. Barrett has 50 tackles and seven sacks on the season.
SR PK Mark Torosian is a decent kicker, connecting on 16 of 20 PATs but only converting two of five FG’s. FY Mason Parmalee has a 35.2 YPP average with a long of 56 yards.
Keys to the Game:
1. Key on Kennedy – Kennedy’s passing and rushing stats clearly show he’s the key to the Rochester offense. Last week Kennedy put up a lot of yards (over 300 yards of total offense and two TDs) but he was also responsible for four turnovers (two INTs and two fumbles). Look for the Hobart defense (currently second in the LL with a +7 TOM) to try and strip the ball if and when Kennedy drops back or takes off running.
2. Run on Rochester - In spite of the excellent LB corp, the UofR defense allows a nearly LL worst 193.2 rushing YPG and 17 rushing TDs. The Jackets are last in the LL in opponent third down conversions with a 41.4% rate (53 of 128). I expect to see a lot of running plays given Rochester defends the pass well, good for second in the LL with only 135.5 YPG allowed and third in defensive pass efficiency with a 105.9 rating (51.5% opponent completions for 1084 yards and eight TDs compared to six INTs).
3. The Need for Seed – A 9-0 season will pretty much guarantee Hobart at least a number two seed and potentially two home games in the NCAA playoffs. The importance of home field can’t be understated given the Statesmen haven’t lost at the “Boz” in two years. While a loss wouldn’t knock Hobart out of the NCAA bracket (they’re in regardless thanks to the “Pool A”, i.e., automatic qualifier via winning the LL), but an 8-1 record could mean the difference between hosting first (and potentially other) round games and having to be a road team for the playoffs.
Prediction:
Rochester has certainly improved from prior seasons, but their weaknesses were exposed last week. They have lost to other strong running teams (like 9-0 Gallaudet who gained nearly 300 yards on the Jackets) and can be susceptible to turnovers.
Given the above, I’ll take the Statesmen in a hard fought 37-20 win.
I hope that the game will be in hand by the third quarter and the team stays healthy throughout. I also hope you will join me Sunday night at 7:30 PM when Frank Rossi and I interview UW-Stout AD and NCAA D3 Football Tournament Chair, Duey Naatz, on the process and outcome of the 2013 NCAA D3 Football Championship Bracket.
The selection will be made public around 6 PM ET.
We’ll be live on www.inthehuddlle.com 90 minutes later to discuss the bracket with Coach Cragg among other guests.
Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!
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