In some ways this week feels a little less intense than in prior years. The Union game is always the biggest on Hobart's schedule and the rivalry between these two schools remains as strong as ever. Unfortunately injuries and other issues have hampered the Dutchmen (2-5, 2-2) and Union will likely have its first losing season since 2010.
The Statesmen (6-0, 4-0) have had the Dutchmen's number of late, boasting a three game win streak over their rivals since that same 2010 season. That year a then SO QB Nick Strang '13 came off the bench and broke a Hobart record with 498 yards of total offense, leading the Statesmen to an exciting 41-35 win in 2OT. Last season I got to see Hobart beat Union 42-34 in Geneva. That game started out like a potential rout, but the Dutchmen battled back and actually out scored the Statesmen 27-14 in the second half.
Hobart hasn't beaten Union four straight since the 1970s. Back then the Statesmen ran off 8 consecutive wins from the 1971 to 1979 seasons. After a two year hiatus, the series resumed in 1982 and Union won 16 straight games against Hobart. It took 17 seasons, and Coach Cragg's third as Head Coach, for Hobart to finally beat the Dutchmen, 19-14, and break that streak in 1998.
The last decade and the start of this one saw the Statesmen finally get more competitive and eventually surpass their rivals, winning nine of the last 15 games, including three game winning streaks between 2002-2004 and 2010-2012. Can Hobart win a fourth in a row? The last SR class to go 4-0 vs. the Dutchmen was the Class of 1980.
Keys to the game:
1. Ya Gotta Tackle Thomas (and TJ) - Union's best offensive weapon is JR RB Darnell Thomas, who had a big game vs Hobart last season racking up 141 rushing yards on 16 carries (8.8 YPC) and scoring two TDs. This season Thomas has 453 yards and five rushing TDs. SR RB TJ Franzese is also a good back, gaining 408 yards and five scores. WR Kyle Reynolds (five catches for 85 yards and two TDs) and QB Connor Eck (245 passing yards) also had big numbers against the Statesmen defense, but neither will play Saturday. JR QB Nick Becker is the current Union signal caller. Becker has gone 17 of 39 (43.59%) but for only 47 YPG, no TDs, and two INTs. Needless to say, Union will need good games from both RBs to have a chance at beating the Statesmen.
2. DTR- the Dutchmen's strength is their stout defense, who despite the losing record, leads the LL in rushing defense (106.1 YPG allowed) and are second only to Hobart in total defense (282.3 YPG allowed) and opponent's third down conversions (37.9%). Union's defense is led by SO LB Thomas Hayes with 60 tackles, tied for second in the LL with an 8.6 TPG average. The Dutchmen lead the LL in TOP (34:17), so if Hobart can control the clock, it would eat into the Dutchmen's bread and butter.
3. Pass Protect - The Statesmen OL was a bit off for the early part of last week's RPI game allowing four sacks after not allowing any since the Dickinson game (and that was only one). With SR OL Alex Bush out due to an injury, the OL will need to improve its protection against a tough Union defensive front. Last season JR TE Mike Berkowitz had a breakout game (89 yards and two TDs) against Union last season and is coming off a similar game from last weekend when he caught two TDs against RPI. On the flip side, the Dutchmen OL has struggled, and they are last in the LL in sacks allowed with 27 for -214 yards.
Prediction:
Although Union has struggled this season, they will be up for this game. Hobart has lost in the past to "lesser" Union teams (meaning the Statesmen had a much better record coming into the contest), 2008 (and 2009 for that matter) come to mind. Still, I don't see the Statesmen taking their primary LL rivals lightly, especially with big games coming up with improved Saint Lawrence (5-2, 3-1) and Rochester (5-2, 3-1) teams looming on their schedule.
I'll take Hobart to win in a more defensive, hard-hitting game 31-14 vs. the shoot outs of the past couple of seasons.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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