Hobart barely trails the Dutchmen, 49-51-2 in the all-time series and I believe both are each other's second longest standing rival, this being the 103rd meeting (if my math is right). This season Union has beaten three teams by a combined 123-31 margin. To be fair, the combined W/L record of these opponents is only 1-11. Not exactly a murderer's row by any stretch.
Last season the Statesmen rallied from two 11-point and one 9-point deficits to comeback and clip Union by a score of 29-28. Then JR TE A.J. Perlino tied the game by making a 16-yard TD catch from JR QB Ryan Hofmann with 8:28 remaining, capping a five play, 85-yard drive. SO PK Kyle Hackett successfully converted the PAT, giving Hobart the lead. SO FS Cal Sullivan made one of the biggest plays of his young career not long after, intercepting a SO QB Will Bellamy pass at the Hobart five yard line. The offense would take the field and burn the clock, basically leaving the Dutchmen with only 25 seconds left at their own 30. The clock would run out on Union and Hobart won the game, 29-28.
Scouting the Dutchmen
I'm taking a bit of a critical stance on some the upcoming stats based on the teams Union has played so far to date. Union handled what appears to be a down Springfield College team in Week 3, 27-17, but HC Jeff Behrman was lukewarm post game in assessing how he felt the Dutchmen played that day.
That said we know Union has a potent offense, led by JR QB Will Bellamy who is more than capable. This season the Louisiana native has passed for over 500 yards, with a completion percentage of nearly 70%, finding the end zone seven times in three games.
His top target is once again SO WR Andre Ross, Jr. (last season's LL ROTY) who leads the Dutchmen with just under 200 receiving yards and four TDs. SR WR Griffin Beal however has been Bellamy's favorite, with a team high 13 catches, including one TD. SO RB Ike Irabor leads the ground attack with nearly 300 rush yards, but has seen his classmate SO RB Joseph Ferriera score two more TDs (for a total of 5) than him so far this season.
The Union OL is made up of three JRs - C Ryan Ehrets, LG Chris Katchadurian and RG Teddy Hood - and two underclassmen. Ehrets was a first-team all-conference selection last season. SO OL Tim Driscoll is the LT, who's a tall (6'6") but not that big (240 lbs) weight wise. The newest addition is FY RT Max Langsam who may lack experience, but isn't lacking in size standing at 6' 4", 290 lbs.
Defensively the Dutchmen run a similar 3-4 scheme that we're seeing Hobart execute so well. Last season Union's defense was a strength of the team, and given the (lack of) competition played to date, it's hard to get a real gauge on how strong this unit is, or not?
One player who is definitely strong, is JR LB Colin Lama who's off to an impressive start this season, leading the Dutchmen with 26 tackles, including 3.5 TFL. SR DE Vincent DiCaterino is the team's best pass rusher, tallying six TFL to go with two sacks and one INT. JR NT Daniel Gioioso is a stocky, but solid run-stuffer, who earned second team all-conference recognition last season. This year he's had 12 stops to go with 2.5 TFL.
SR PK Will Halpin, III handles most of the kicking duties for Union, including FGs (he converted a 24 yder against Anna Maria), punts and KOs. None of Halpin's six punts have been returned this season, three getting FC and the other three being downed inside the opponent's 20-yard line by the return team. He averages almost 55 yards on KOs, but he's had one TB and two of his KOs went out-of-bounds, so keep an eye out for angle kicks. For some reason FY LB Miguel Rodriguez has handled PAT duties, making 15-16. Halpin has kicked and converted only one PAT this season.
FY WR Kevin Rabacs and JR S Mark Zazzaro have split KOR duties, averaging about 25 YPKOR between them. JR WR Justin Faia has averaged about nine yards on PRs.
Keys to the Game:
1. Run and Protect the Football - The Pride (1-3) rushed for over 200 yards but committed three turnovers - an INT and two fumbles - back in Week 3 against the Dutchmen. The Statesmen returned to a more balanced attack against Montclair last weekend, rushing and passing for almost exactly 150 yards each. The Union secondary is mostly untested, seeing only 57 pass attempts in three games (by comparison Hobart opponents have thrown the ball 146 times over four games). A strong run game by the Statesmen can open up the passing game via play-action, especially given the depth and experience of Hobart's WR and TE group. SR QB Ryan Hofmann is struggling a bit with accuracy, with a sub-47% completion mark, but he's hit on long plays several times this season. The Statesmen will have chances to take some deep shots, but they need to lure the Dutchmen in by feeding SR RB Brian Haeffner and/or getting some RPO play calls in using SO QB David Krewson to throw off the Union defense. Speaking of defense, Hobart should constantly be looking to strip would-be Union runners, as the Dutchmen have fumbled five times already this season.
2. Embattle Bellamy - The Union QB has yet to throw any INTs this season and the Dutchmen OL has only allowed two QB sacks. If Hobart can chip away at limiting the Union offensive possessions (the Dutchmen are averaging close to 34 minutes TOP-wise) and pressure Bellamy into mistakes, the offense can capitalize and take what's likely to be a loud and full home crowd out of the game. Last season the Statesmen defense forced Bellamy to only hit on 50% of his attempts, sacked him three times and intercepted him twice.
3. Deal With Beal, but Don't Let Ross Over the Top - Ross, Jr. is averaging nearly 30 YPC this season, including a long of 58 yards. He is a legitimate deep threat the Statesmen secondary needs to neutralize. They failed to do so last season as he racked up six catches for 152 yards and a TD. Beal will get catches here and there, but Hobart has to watch Ross, Jr. from getting behind them.
Prediction:
This will be the best defense the Union offense will have faced this season, no doubt about that. The initial drives and series will set the tone in what I think may end up in a lower scoring, more defensive battle than what we saw last season. Union's defense is a bit of a mystery, so the Statesmen may need some time to execute their game plan and find the best match-ups to exploit. I do think the Union secondary could be a weak link.
I also feel like if Hobart can run the clock and avoid mistakes (e.g., Union is particularly penalty prone, already being flagged 20 times for almost -200 yards or basically -66 YPG), the Statesmen can get a hard-fought road win against this undefeated Dutchmen squad.
I like Hobart to win it in a lower-scoring affair, 24-14.
Thanks for reading as always, and go 'Bart!
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