If Union loses, they will likely be out of the NCAA playoffs because of a schedule that lacks SOS or any wins over likely NCAA regionally ranked teams. The Dutchmen losing also makes them the likely pick in the (supposedly still alive) New York State Bowl game from the LL. It's possible even if they lost and ended the season 9-1, Union could pass on the game (they did last season). Time will tell.
Regardless, for better or worse, Hobart is playing for third place at this point and hopefully ending up in the NYS game against maybe a Cortland or Alfred, which would be exciting match-ups and a nice way to send off the Class of 2020. Before that, the Statesmen have to beat a long-time rival they've dominated for the past two decades, but has one it's strongest offensive units in school history.
Hobart is 52-38-2 against SLU all-time, in a series that dates back to 1901. This will be the 93rd meeting, with the Statesmen enjoying a win streak over the Saints dating back to 2010. Prior to that game, Hobart had won 18 consecutive games against SLU from 1992 until that 3-point set back in 2010. The Saints gave the Statesmen a couple of scares in the 2014 and 2015 seasons, otherwise Hobart has beaten the Saints by an average score of 37-19 (rounded up), including last year's 42-31 win in Canton, the last three seasons.
Scouting the Saints
SLU (3-4, 1-2) has had an up and down season, but is riding high after a dominant 35-21 win over RPI (4-3, 1-2) last Saturday. The Saints got out to a fast start, scoring 4 TDs in the first half, running up a 35 unanswered points until taking their foot off the pedal in the fourth quarter.
SO QB Tyler Grochot is having a strong second-year campaign, and coincidentally, is ranked 2nd in the LL with 2,222 passing yards, 18 TDs and 318.3 YPG average. One area he's struggled has been accuracy, ranking fifth in pass completions with a 62.4% mark and his 9 INTs is the second most in the LL.
Not surprisingly, JR WR Andrew Murphy and JR WR Joseph Viscardo are reaping the benefits of HC Dan Puckhaber's aerial scheme. Murphy has 36 catches for 636 yards and 5 TDs. Viscardo has caught 46 passes for 631 yards and 11 TDs.
SO RB Jamie Battaglia only averages 56.9 RYPG, but he's ranked third in rushing in the LL with a total of 398 yards and 3 TDs. He runs behind an experienced OL led by SR RT Jack Cesari (6'3" 265 lbs). JR RG Mike Weaver (5' 11" 270 lbs), SO C Joseph O'Rourke (6' 250 lbs.), JR LG Nick Castrova (6'2" 290 lbs.) and JR LT Max Warden (6'3" 300 lbs.) make up the rest of the unit. Warden earned 2nd team All-LL last season and will be a tough match up for the Hobart DL in the game.
Defensively the Saints run a 3-4-4 scheme and are led by JR LB Liam Murray with 65 tackles, which ranks 3rd in the LL. Murray was high school classmates with Hobart's JR FS Cal Sullivan. Sullivan had his best game of the season with six tackles, including 1 TFL against Ithaca in Week 7. The Hobart OL will need to be on guard to stop JR LB Ethan Roberts, who leads the Saints with 13.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks, the latter being the best mark for sacks in the LL.
The SLU secondary has 9 INTs on the season and is led by SR DB Tyler Burns with 48 tackles to go with 2 TFL, 2 INTs and 4 PBUs. Burns also serves as the Saints PR specialist.
GR PK Jackson Reaper is the Saints punter, averaging just under 34 YPP. SR PK William Manory has gone 6-7 on FGs with a long of 36. He's perfect under 30 yards. JR PK Austin Pinard averages 53.7 YPKO.
A number of different SLU players have fielded KOs, but it appears as though FY WR Peyton Schmitt is the usual suspect, averaging just over 15 YPKO return.
Keys to the Game:
1. Something's Got to Give - The Saints bring the 2nd best LL passing offense to take on the 2nd best passing defense. SLU has scored on 18 passing TDs this season, Hobart's only allowed 9, and 3 of those came against IC (who had some help from the refs on a couple non-OPI calls on those). Hobart will need to do a better job generating pressure up the middle - an area they've all but abandoned at times this season given personnel changes. This is a problem with the 3-man front, because it allows the OL to have a 5 on 3 advantage. Based on my understanding of the rules, JR OLB Emmett Forde should be eligible to play from the get go Saturday which is good news. The Saints OL has allowed 20 sacks in seven games (almost a 3 per game average), which means Hobart would do well to blitz and rush Grochot's throws.
2. Run for It - Both SLU and Hobart have the worst rushing stats in the LL, averaging 61.9 and 79.3 YPG, respectively. Surprisingly, the Saints have a pretty decent balance, play calling wise, with about a 47-53 run-pass ratio. The Statesmen aren't much different, rushing about 45% of the time. Needless to say, while the long ball will have a lot to say how this game plays out, I could see the team that controls the clock and keeps the other side's offense on the sideline win the game.
3. Home Sweet Home - Hobart is 4-0 at home this season and SLU is 0-3 away from Canton, NY. This is a must win game for the Statesmen, especially given they have owned the series against SLU of late. Hobart can keep it's post-season hopes alive (via the NYS Bowl) with a win Saturday.
Prediction:
The Statesmen are a different team at home and although this SLU team can't be taken lightly, Hobart should have enough of a defensive advantage to carry the game. I will pick the Statesmen to come away with a hard fought 31-17 win.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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