A lot of the backdrop on this game will be about how Hobart, who trails the overall series by a 5-27 margin (but has gone 4-5 against the Bombers since 2000), has never won against Ithaca on the road. The Bombers have a two game win streak against Hobart, having beaten them 24-21 in Ithaca back in 2017 and by a 10-3 margin in Geneva last season. The Statesmen defense gave the 2017 game away in the final two minutes and the 2018 game came down to the offense getting bogged down, in part to 10 penalties for -110 yards, including two turnovers.
Realistically Hobart could have won either of those contests and will need to avoid past pitfalls against a strong, but beatable, Ithaca team this year.
Scouting the Bombers
Ithaca boasts the #1 scoring offense in the LL, averaging 47.6 PPG. SR QB Joe Germiniero, Jr. leads the top passing offense in the conference, averaging 330.4 YPG, and the running game isn't far behind, ranked second overall averaging 127.4 YPG, respectively. Germiniero, who's 2-0 against Hobart in his career, has completed over 70% of his passes for 1,563 yards, 18 TDs, compared to only 3 INTs. He's scored 3 rushing TDs as well.
His favorite target is the reigning LL OPOTY, SR WR Will Gladney. Not surprisingly, he leads the LL in receiving yards with 590 to go with 9 TDs. JR WR Andrew Vito and SO WR Michael Anderson have combined for 56 receptions for 707 yards and 5 TDs. SR RB Isaiah D'Haiti leads the team with 172 rushing yards and 5 TDs, which clearly points to Ithaca's preference of the pass over the run in HC Dan Swanstrom's offense.
The Bombers OL is a mix of veterans and newcomers with SR C Michael Conley and SR LT Kyle Berna being the most experienced of the group. The other starters (according to last Saturday's box score - a relatively easy 48-14 win over 0-6 Buffalo State) are SO LG Andrew Testani, SO RG Jake Villanueva (who was a starter as a FY and is the biggest - 6'4", 315 lbs. - of what's a moderately sized group) and SO RT Brendan Martin. The OL has allowed 6 sacks in five games so far.
Defensively the Bombers have an almost entirely new cast of characters, and that inexperience has been exposed a handful of times this season. The best example of this was during the second half of the Bombers game against St. John Fisher (3-3, 0-2 E8). The Cardinals rallied down 25 points at the half to push Ithaca to the brink of their first defeat, shutting out the Bombers offense and nearly pulling off the upset.
SR LB Nick Garone leads the team with 39 tackles, including 2 sacks and 3 INTs. SR DL John Hadac leads the Bombers and LL with 6.5 sacks and 10.5 TFL. SO DB Anthony Robinson leads the secondary with nine PBUs to go with 29 tackles and 2 TFL. JR DB Khiry Brown has 2 of the 9 INTs the Ithaca defense has produced in 5 games.
FY PK Nicholas Bahamonde is a perfect 7-7 on FGs with a long of 47 yards. He also handles KOs, averaging 59.3 yards PKO. Nearly half of KOs have ended up as TBs. SO PK Brian Fallon has handled most of the punting duties, averaging a net of 37.73 YPP. SO RB AJ Clifford has returned virtually all the KOs this season, averaging a solid 26.19 YPKOR. SR WR Kyle Smith has returned one punt for a TD, otherwise Anderson has fielded a handful of punts as well.
Keys to the Game:
1. Don't Believe the Hype / Bring the Noise - The Germiniero transfer raised a lot of eyebrows in the off-season, making Ithaca the defacto favorite in the LL title race, and Joe certainly hasn't disappointed his new team. That said, RPI provided a blue print on how to rattle and ultimately beat the strong-armed QB last season with a steady dose of middle and outside pressure, forcing him into bad throws and missing his reads, leading to INTs. The Cardinals nearly succeeded in a similar way, picking off and sacking Germiniero twice in the game. The Statesmen will need to follow a similar script, using a variety of blitz packages to disrupt the Bombers potent offense. It's fair to say Ithaca hasn't faced a defense with as much talent, even with the number of injuries to the DL/LB corps, as this Statesmen unit possesses. If JR OLB Emmett Forde can get some hits Germiniero the way he dropped RPI JR QB George Marinopolous, it's game on in Ithaca.
2. Protect the Football - Even if the Bombers defense has been more porous against the pass than last year, they have done a good job with take-away's, which is something the Statesmen can't afford on the road this weekend. The Ithaca run defense has good stats, but they struggled to handle Alfred SR RB Aaron Griffin in Week 3. The problem for the Saxons was their passing game was almost non-existent, allowing the Bombers to chip away on offense, and take advantage of a couple of short fields. If the Hobart OL can help SR RB Brian Haeffner curn out some tough yards, the best defense against Germiniero and company could simply be just eat up clock and keep the Bombers offense on the sideline as much as possible.
3. Dig (and Go) Deep - Hobart will need SR QB Ryan Hofmann to be accurate with his throws and look for the opportunity to connect on the deep ball like we've seen a few times this season. JR WR Mike Giacobbe will be a match up problem for the Bombers, and the Statesmen will need to take some shots with SR WR Ray Conley as well.
4. In With the New - Swanstrom doesn't know much about guys like FY RBs Tim Denham, Jr and Rayshawn Boswell. FY TE Charlie Pierce could be an X factor too in certain goal line situations. SO WR Shahkyle Matthews is another weapon Hobart could leverage a bit more to keep the Bombers defense on their heels. The Bombers are basically the biggest and best opponent on Hobart's schedule - time to throw the proverbial "kitchen sink" at Ithaca and leave it all on the field.
Prediction:
This all depends on what Statesmen team shows up?
If it's the Union game guys - forget it. Ithaca romps Hobart in the 35-21 zone. If it's the RPI game guys - then we're talking about a one-score game like the past two seasons where the Hobart defense and ST units can make a difference with a turnover, fake punt / gadget play.
Points will be at a premium either way so I expect to see at least a couple JR PK Kyle Hackett FG attempts. The Bombers PK is a strong one also, so a potential FG block play could come in handy for Hobart.
Hopefully Hobart finally breaks the Butterfield streak and leaves that behind them for good. Ithaca is probably over-rated at #9 in the nation, but that could be something the Statesmen use to their advantage. All the pressure is on the Bombers to win here. Hobart has been the more disciplined team in all their games this season, and the penalty stats show it, with the Statesmen having the least amount of flags and penalty yardage in all the LL. Ithaca has the most. Will it be a deciding factor Saturday? Time will tell....
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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