The Hobart College Football team has a huge game this weekend on Senior Day at the "Boz." According to the roster, there are 18 Statesmen who will suit up for their final home regular season game. A win Saturday would go a long way in helping Hobart have a shot to host an ECAC Bowl game on November 18th, but we'll have to wait and see on that.
The RPI Engineers are looking to keep their NCAA at-large playoff berth hopes alive and get their first win in Geneva since 2015. Hobart (6-2, 2-2) has won three in a row vs. RPI (7-1, 3-1) at home, including 2021's memorable 10-9 game. The Engineers used a couple of turnovers, forcing Hobart to punt into the wind in the 4th quarter, to rally and beat the Statesmen last year, 16-13.
Needless to say, the margin between victory and defeat is always very close when these two teams meet. Even the all-time series is dead even - 32-32-1 - so this 66th meeting will give one team a razor thin edge, once again.
Scouting the Engineers
It's hard to argue that in spite of the administrative nightmare RPI had to endure with former President Jackson during COVID, there are few teams in the Northeast / Region 1 & 2 that have taken better advantage of the NCAA extra year of eligibility than RPI. They once again have a large roster (about 120 players) that is deep and very experienced. Interestingly enough, there are a fair number of SO and JR starters on this squad.
The Engineers have outscored their opponents by an average of 39.75-13.25 PPG this season. Based on the LL stat sheet, RPI has the number one scoring offense, fourth ranked scoring defense (Hobart is third allowing 13 PPG), second ranked total offense (426 YPG), third ranked total defense (281.5 YPG, just behind Hobart's 277.8 YPG allowed), fourth ranked rushing offense (189.8, once again just behind the Statesmen, but with three more TDs scored), and second ranked rushing defense (96.9 YPG and only three rush TDs allowed all season).
The biggest gap between the two squads is in the passing game. RPI is top rated LL passing offense, averaging 236.3 YPG passing with 15 pass TDs. Hobart is dead last at 163.3 YPG and 9 scores. Conversely, the Statesmen pass defense is ranked third with 159.3 YPG and only 5 pass TDs allowed. RPI is ranked sixth, allowing 184.6 YPG and 10 pass TDs.
The Engineers are led on offense by JR QB Jake Kazanowsky. He's gone 131-197 for 1,757 passing yards with 15 TDs compared to 6 INTs. RPI features a dual back rushing attack, much like Hobart. FY RB Kayden White leads the team with 463 rush yards to go with 5 TDs. JR RB Christian Buckley leads RPI with 8 rushing scores and is second on the team with 416 rush yards. Kazanowski's top target is SO WR Hayden Faraday (ranked 2nd in the LL in YPG receiving) who has 42 catches for 555 yards and 5 receiving TDs.
Defensively the Engineers are led by JR LB Anthony D'Agostino with 60 total tackles (sixth most in the LL). He's added 6 TFL, 2 INT and 1 FR. JR DL Nate Sicard anchors the DL with 31 tackles to go with a team high 2 sacks and 12 QB hits. He's tied with D'Agostino with 6 TFL.
I will note that RPI runs a 4-3. Just going to leave it at that.
The Engineers specialists are SO PK Anderson Burke and GR PK Jared Elstein. Burke handles punting duties while Elstein does KOs and FGs, going 6-9 with a long of 39 yards. RPI is also the top ranked KOR and PR team in the LL, averaging 26.9 and 15.6 YPG, respectively.
Keys to the Game:
1. Play to Your Strengths, Mitigate the Weaknesses: If you look at the Ithaca game BX, you can see that the Bombers leaned on their running game (45 carries for 219 yards) and defense (2 INTs, 1 blocked FG) to beat the Engineers. Hobart needs to follow the same script. If the Statesmen can gain 4-5 YPR and just be efficient enough with a limited number of passes they'll have a chance. Ithaca only had 120 passing yards, but completed 15-21 (71.4%) with 2 passing TDs and only one INT. I'm not sure that JR QB Jimmy Columbi can be that efficient given his recent struggles, but he can absolutely stretch the field with his legs if given strong blocking. The RPI DL is relentless but the Statesmen OL has only allowed 7 sacks all season. On the flip side, Hobart's defense will need to pressure Kazanowsky (Ithaca sacked him four times) and force him into mistakes. The Statesmen pass defense is a strength, but Hobart's DL (which will once again have a significant size disadvantage) will need to play better than they did at Union.
2. Win on Third Down: RPI leads the LL in 3rd down conversions with an impressive 52.5%-win rate (52-99), which ranks them 10th in the nation. Hobart has allowed 38.3% of third down conversions, ranking them fourth in the LL. The Statesmen will need to find ways to force the high-powered Engineers offense into three and outs and set up the Hobart offense with decent field position.
3. Home Sweet Home: The Statesmen are undefeated (5-0) this season and are 23-2 under HC Kevin DeWall '00 at home (both losses were to Ithaca, in 2018 and 2022). RPI will no doubt go into this matchup as a clear favorite, but Hobart's home field advantage (and 92%-win rate) is a real thing.
Prediction:
Back in 2021 RPI came into this game undefeated and ranked in the Top 25. The stakes are similar in this game and so I'm hoping the result is also. The Statesmen don't get to play the role of "spoiler" often, but they have the opportunity to do so Saturday. Like Union, the Engineers are the better team "on paper", but the X factors of Senior Day and Boswell Field even the odds in my opinion.
The weather looks clear so RPI will be able to test the Statesmen passing defense. Hobart will need to play aggressively on defense, run it 40+ times and hang onto the ball on offense. I'll take the Statesmen to narrowly edge RPI, probably on a FG, by a 17-14 final.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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