The Hobart College Statesmen will travel down I-90 to take on the newly minted Union College "Garnet Chargers" (still think of them as the Dutchmen, but I digress) this Saturday at noon (or 1 PM, both sites have different kickoff times at the moment). This will be the 106th meeting between these two rivals, and it's been a pretty competitive one of late, as five of the last six games have been decided by a TD or less.
The Dutchmen / GCs lead the all-time series by a narrow 50-53-2 margin. The series dates back to 1896, and while not as old as the DGC's rivalry with RPI, the Hobart-Union one is right up there in long-time D3FB rivalries. The main reason the Statesmen trail in the series was a rough 16 game losing streak between the 1982-1997 season (the last one I was at and remember being really disappointed in that loss after Hobart led at the half).
Last season Hobart (5-1, 1-1) got a hard fought 23-21 win after a 58-yard (then SO WR) Rane Daramola TD gave the Statesmen the lead with 2:10 left in the game. The defense would hold, and Hobart would average a hard 27-20 loss in OT to Union from 2021 (another game I was at in person).
Union (6-1, 2-1) comes into this contest with a close (17-9) loss to Ithaca, just like Hobart. Statistically both teams are very similar as you will see below. All rankings are based on the LL stat sheet:
- UC is second in scoring, averaging 38.4 PPG; HOB is third with 34.8 PPG
- UC is first in PPG allowed with 6.9; HOB is second with 12.8 PPG
- UC is ranked first in total O & D with 465.9 YPG gained and 166.4 YPG allowed; HOB is third with 366.8 YPG gained and 266.5 YPG allowed (on a tougher schedule I would add)
- UC has the #1 rushing O with 26 TDs and averaging 267.6 YPG on the ground; HOB is the second ranked rushing O with 16 TDs and averaging 204.7 YPG
- UC has the #1 rushing D allowing only 1 TD and 51.6 YPG on the ground; HOB is ranked third, allowing 5 TD and 110.6 YPG on the ground
- UC has the third best passing O & best passing D; averaging 198.3 YPG with 8 TDs and allowing only 114.9 YPG passing and 4 scores; HOB is ranked sixth in passing O & third in passing D, gaining 162.2 YPG and scoring 5 TDs while allowing 156 YPG but only 3 passing TDs
- HOB has the edge in total INTs and sacks, but UC has allowed one less sack than HOB
- On special teams, HOB has a slight edge in KOs, punting, PATs and FGs over UC
- Yardage differential on KO and PRs is fairly similar, and basically negligible
Scouting the Garnet Chargers (f/k/a Dutchmen):
Defensive front 7 are very good and have been playing excellent all year. SR LB Cole DaSilva is an excellent downhill player and leads Union in tackles (34, with 5 TFL). SR LB Spencer Goldstein is also very good backer and very athletic for his size. He has 23 tackles on the season and leads the team in INTs with 3. SR LB Tom Cavallo is a strong leader and has also played well even without all the tackling stats Silva and Goldstein have.
The DGC have three DL who have been wreaking havoc all year with SR DL Jimaar Edwards being the best of that unit. He blows up lots of plays and will likely draw double-teams from the Hobart OL. The other two, SR DL Ethan Vanderbrink and DL Jack Flanagan, are experienced and skilled. The group overall has amassed 12.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks so far this season. Union does a good job "running to the ball", so the overall tackles for the team have been spread out across the defense pretty evenly. One potential weak spot is that deep coverage has been a bit of an issue the last two games but overall has been pretty good all year. SR DB Nathan Sullivan, younger brother of former Hobart FS, Cal Sullivan '22, has had a great year. He's notched 22 tackles, 2.5 TFL and 2 INTs on the season.
Offensively, the Union OL has been great even though they’ve had some injuries and needed to plug some backups in. The backs have been impressive all year (until the Ithaca game). SR RB Michael Fiore is a finesse guy with great vision and JR RB Anderson is a downhill, tough runner. Fiore and Anderson are currently ranked fourth and fifth in the conference, averaging 90.9 and 85.1 YPG, respectively. Fiore leads the LL with 12 rushing TDs, while Anderson has five.
The receiving corps is very deep and capable (although they did struggle in the bad weather at Ithaca). SO WR Landers Green is a good vertical threat (16.9 YPC average), and JR WR Robbie Tolbert is a solid possession guy. JR QB Donovan Pacatte has a ton of arm talent, his size (6' 4" and 225 lbs.) and arm strength put him in the upper echelon of D3 QBs. Hobart may want to hope for rain this weekend (the forecast says there's an 80% chance so bring your orange and purple ponchos), as Pacatte did struggle against Rochester (5-2, 2-1) when he was under pressure, and had difficulty in the rain against Ithaca.
Union's ST unit has been good overall. JR PK Max Gluck has had a good season to date, and twice has been the LL's STPOTW. Gluck has gone 6-10 on FGs with a long of 40 yards. SR PK Andrew Lau handles the punting duties, averaging 37.8 YPP. SO PK Ryan Mulderig handles KOs and has averaged 53.4 YPKO.
Keys to the Game:
1. Turnovers and conversions: With wet and rainy conditions, ball control will be at a premium. Two turnovers in the Ithaca game cost Union (same deal for the Statesmen when they played the Bombers). Whichever team wins the turnover battle in this one should have a significant upper hand. As good as the Hobart defense has been creating turnovers, the Statesmen lost the TO battle against Ithaca also and that was the difference in the game.
Union leads the LL with 26+ first downs per game and has the best 3rd down conversion defense in the league, only allowing 18.4% of opponent third down conversions, compared to Hobart's 40.2% rate. The Statesmen defense will need to force the DGC to more three and outs to have a better chance at winning this game. On the flip side, the Hobart offense will need to look for ways to move the chains and keep Pacatte, Fiore and the rest of the Union offense on the sideline. Last weekend Union was held to under 300 yards of offense for the first time this season. The Statesmen will need to try and recreate that same result (with some help from the rain) Saturday.
2. Pressure Pacatte: In spite of his size, Pacatte is like every QB in that he struggles under pressure. Hobart's DL and LB corps will need to be creative in how they attack Union's strong OL to rattle the JR QB. Ithaca rushed him into an INT last weekend, and I'm hoping the Statesmen can follow that same game plan.
3. Maximize the Little, Minimize the Big Plays: Emotions run high in these high-profile LL rivalry games. Ithaca actually had a TD called back due to taunting and Hobart will likely be provoked by their opponents from time to time. The "crowd on the hill" back in 2021 heckled me (and I was wearing a Tampa Bucs jacket) relentlessly, along with the entire Statesmen sideline. Hobart just needs to focus on the fundamentals and not get too high or low with what happens over the course of the game. Usually in these types of games, the cooler heads prevail.
Prediction:
These games are always the toughest for me to predict. The past six games are even at 3-3 for each squad, so your guess is as good as mine. I think either team can win Saturday, it'll just come down to which one executes the best.
Union has an edge in experience and at the OL/DL and skill positions, but with Hobart coming off what's effectively a bit of a bye week; the Statesmen should be more rested and less banged up than the Dutchmen/GCs.
Union has won the last three in a row (due to a COVID/LL scheduling glitch) at home vs. Hobart. The Statesmen need this win to keep their NCAA postseason hopes alive, and whichever team wins this game will bolster their Pool C (and ECAC Bowl bid and hosting) chances.
I get the sense this will be a run-heavy, field position battle. JR PK Tobias Wefering will have a big impact based on his punting and FG kicking skills. It wouldn't surprise me if this one comes down to who has the ball in the final minutes.
On paper Union should be the favorite, but I have a feeling they will be a bit "hungover" from the Ithaca game. Hobart should win if they play mistake free football, by a close 13-10 margin.
Hope I'm right.
Thanks for reading and go 'Bart!
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