Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Week 6 - Buffalo State Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will return home to host their first of four LL games in the next five weeks at the "Boz". Up next are the Buffalo State Bengals (1-3, 0-1) who are a team that is continuing their rebuild effort with a new HC (Lazarus Morgan, Utica '08) and making strides. Buff State broke a 26-game losing streak back in Week 3 with a 41-7 win over Dean.

Last weekend the Bengals nearly upset the Rochester Yellow Jackets (4-1, 1-0), 29-22, and should be a tougher challenge for Hobart (3-1, 0-1) this season. Last year the Statesmen had little trouble with the Bengals, winning 63-7. It was the third straight win for Statesmen since Buff State joined the LL as an affiliate member back in 2019. Hobart is 6-3 all time vs. the Bengals, dating back to the 1984 season.


Scouting the Bengals:

Buffalo State may have a losing record, but they have been more competitive this season. They are averaging 23 PPG on offense and allowing 28.75 PPG on defense. While the latter ranks last in the LL, the Bengals only average about 6 PPG less than Hobart offensively. 

Buffalo State has also seen a few of their players get both national and conference recognition for their individual efforts over the past couple of weeks. SR RB Ale Wilson was named to the D3Football.com Team of the Week for his 22 rush, 199 yards and 3 TDs performance against Dean in Week 3. In Week 5, FY DB Basiaka Butcher earned LL ROTW honors for seven tackles and a pick-six (his second of the season) in the Bengals' Homecoming game against the University of Rochester on last Saturday. Butcher is tied for second in the LL with 2 INTs.

SO QB Noah Kimble leads the Bengals offense and has passed for 521 yards and 3 TDs this season. He has a trio of targets - each has over double digit catches for 100+ receiving yards - in SR WR Tariq Nelson, SR WR Nicholas Bruce and JR WR Darion Jones.

Defensively, Buff State is led by JR LB Kenneth Mosley with 38 total tackles, which ranks him third overall in the LL and second as far as his tackles per game average (9.5) goes. Right behind him is Hobart JR LB Anthony Romano (37 total, 9.3 TPG) which deserves a quick side bar:

[As I previously stated, I was not able to follow the Ithaca game from last weekend, so my account was based purely on the box score. I was not aware Romano, our best defensive, if not overall, player had either volunteered to fill in at LS or was asked to do so by the coaches. I commend the former, but either way I would strongly question risking him playing on ST and am surprised the Statesmen don't have a backup OL or other player that could fill this role because Romano is far too valuable in my opinion to be LS. That said my comments were not a personal attack. The fact they were perceived as such was disappointing, but I stand by the statement that mistake was a costly one. Those happen in games sometimes, and I expect the players understand that and will work with the coaches to fix them in the future. Not one single player or coach was responsible for the loss at Ithaca. It's a collective effort and at this level, I would hope people would interpret and understand this type of commentary in kind. My intention was not to offend, but to be honest. When you factor in how few HS players can and do play at this level, I consider all of these Statesmen to be elite athletes and hold them to a high standard, just like the coaches do. Everyone knows you have to play error free football to beat a Top 25 ranked team, especially on the road. If you have any other comments or would like to discuss in more detail, please let me know and I'd be happy to have a conversation with you about it. I'm easy to reach. Ok, now back to the preview].

JR PK Nick Sciandra handles all the kicking duties for Bengals. He averages 56.66 YPKO, 33.59 YPP and has gone 4-6 on FGs with a long of 40 yards. His two misses were actually blocks, which I don't blame Sciandra for - he has to rely on the LS, holder and blockers to give him time to make the kicks. 

Jones (see above) handles the majority of the KO duties, averaging 20 YPKOR. Both Jones and SR DB Ethan Biscaro have handled punt returns. 

Keys to the Game:

1. Back to Basics: As I said in the Ithaca write up, the next two weeks are a great opportunity for Hobart to improve and fine tune themselves for the big matchups they have in Weeks 8 and 10. Obviously, they can't overlook Buff State, but the Statesmen simply have more talent than the Bengals. This is a great opportunity to continue working towards a balanced offensive attack and D/ST fundamentals.

2. Turnovers: The Statesmen could use more work in this department. While they are +3 in TOM after four games, Hobart can afford to be crisper in their execution. The Bengals are -4 in TOM, and this is an aspect of the game the Statesmen can take advantage of Saturday. I honestly think a defensive TD is a good possibility this weekend. 

3. Go 1-0: Hobart fans should be rooting for RPI this weekend as that's the first step in getting the LL championship back into its annual free for all status. The Statesmen still control their destiny, even more so with a RPI win. While I don't view Buff State as a serious threat, Hobart needs to take this game seriously and execute as we know they can to put this one away early. Winning week in and out for the rest of the season is the key to getting to the postseason. Every week from here on out is a single NCAA elimination game for the Statesmen. 

Prediction:

I like Hobart to improve to 3-0 at home this season via a 42-14 win.

Thanks as always for reading and go 'Bart!


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