Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Week 1 - Dickinson Game Preview

The 16th ranked Hobart College Statesmen will open their 122nd season of collegiate football when they line up against the Dickinson College Red Devils, Saturday in Carlisle, PA. Kickoff is slated for noon eastern and the game will be broadcast by WEOS 89.5 FM, featuring Ted Baker (pregame show to begin around 11:40 AM). Hobart has faced Dickinson in the season opener dating back to 1992.

In case you missed it, check out SR DL Tucker Gumkowski's interview on ITH Preseason Kickoff Special. Tucker joins around the 90 minute mark but there's definitely Hobart talk spread throughout the show.

Once a competitive rivalry, the Statesmen have defeated the Red Devils in the season opener every year dating back to 2010. Last season Hobart won 33-21 in a game that wasn’t nearly as competitive as that final score indicates.

There are a few questions facing the Statesmen as they enter into this contest at several key positions and it will be interesting to see how the depth chart shakes out. Eye witness reports said the Hobart offense had a bit of a slow start in last week’s scrimmage against Buffalo State so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare in a live game situation.

The Details in (of?) the Devils 

HC Darwin Breaux enters his 23rd season at the helm and must have hopes for an improved season from last year’s 3-7 effort given the return of 17 starters (eight offensive, eight defensive players and one specialist).

The Red Devils’ first order of business is to replace four year starter QB Cole Ahnell ’15. #12 SO QB Ricky Klingerman and #7 JR QB Eddie Kozlowski are leading candidates and I wouldn’t be surprised if Coach Breaux utilizes both during Saturday’s game. While inexperienced, these QBs are athletic and are also taller / bigger than their predecessor. The OL returns three starters and an additional three players who had significant playing time in 2014.

#5 SR RB and Co-Captain Cedric Madden is the key player on offense for Dickinson. He led the team in rushing last season, gaining 1160 yards on 202 carries with six rush TDs. Madden added 303 yards and two TDs also as a receiver. Spelling Madden with be #2 SR RB Shawn Wilson who led Dickinson in rushing two years ago, but a knee injury and subsequent surgery prematurely ended his JR campaign. Blocking for Madden and Wilson are #32 JR FB Chris Soulas and #43 SR FB/TE Anthony Survilla.

#24 SR WR Anders Overhaug (417 receiving yards and four TDs) is the leading target back for the Red Devils in the passing game. #80 SO TE Darrion Bunce (6’4” and 230 lbs) is more of a blocker, but he did catch two TDs against a tough Muhlenberg (9-2 and NCAA playoff at large / Pool C selection) defense last November.

Dickinson suffered a key loss with the graduation of DE Walker Moriarty ‘15, but #58 JR DL Kevin Sherry (47 tackles, six and a half TFL and five sacks) posted similar numbers. He and #98 JR DL Will Hornsby (6’1” 270 lbs) are the strength of the defense, which is deep at DL but thin at LB. Back on defense includes #37 SR DB/OLB Jake Myers, the team's leading tackler last year (70 tackles), #9 SR DB and Co-Captain Teddy Airoldi (69) and #50 SR LB and Co-Captain Pat Schlecker (57).

On special teams, #99 SR PK Austin High is back at punter, averaging 37.7 net YPP in 2014. He was the primary kicker last year but the kicking job looks to be going to incoming recruit #85 FY PK Stephen Walker.

Keys to the Game: 

1. Establish / Stop the Run – Football is a complicated game on one hand but at its core, it’s fairly simple. Win the line of scrimmage (LOS) and you’ll win the game. The Hobart OL will face a tough Dickinson unit that is looking to improve upon its 192.8 rushing YPG allowed from 2014. The Statesmen ran for 263 yards on the Red Devils last season and managed to hold Madden to only 63 yards (which included one 31 yard run late in the game) on 13 carries. If they can repeat that performance, or come close, Hobart will be in good shape.

2. Manage Great Expectations – If Vegas had lines on D3FB games (maybe my future career if this banking thing doesn’t work out), the Statesmen would probably be two TD favorites in this one. That said Hobart needs to go out expect Dickinson will bring their best shot, especially at home. The Red Devils have nothing to lose and Hobart shouldn’t get overly confident or upset if things go well or poorly early on in the game.

3. Minimize Turnovers / Maximize Takeaways – Turnovers are also a fairly obvious aspect of games, but it’s one area the Statesmen could improve upon from 2014 when you look at last year’s stat sheets. Hobart’s usual ball hawk defense didn’t create as many turnovers on defense last season (recovered seven fumbles and had 11 interceptions over 13 games) which led to Hobart having a -7 turnover ratio (to be fair that was exacerbated by six interceptions thrown during the NCAA playoffs). If you compare the Statesmen’s TOM to that of Saint Lawrence’s +22 and RPI’s +9 marks, there’s clearly room for improvement.

Prediction: 

The last five years the score of this game has been fairly predictable, so I’ll predict a 27-10 Hobart win with Dickinson getting some points here and there. My only caveat is if the Statesmen’s offense doesn’t get off to a good start this could be a lower scoring affair. We’ll find out soon enough.

Thanks for reading and go ‘Bart!

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