Looks like I picked a good one for my 400th post on this blog. Hard to believe there's been that many, not to mention it looks like we'll crack 100k views any day now!
The #16 Hobart Statesmen will face off against #24 Ithaca College in what's a 2014 NCAA First Round Playoff rematch, Saturday at Butterfield Stadium. The Bombers (1-0) have had an extra week's rest and preparation for this game and will be looking to avenge last season's 22-15 playoff loss to the Statesmen.
Hobart fans will probably never forget coming back from being down 15-7 and seeing QB Patrick Conlan '15 lead two late drives to tie and, with only 13 seconds left, win the game. Although both Conlan and (former IC QB) Tom Dempsey have graduated, this year's game will definitely be defined by QB play.
#12 JR QB Wolfgang Shafer is the son of Syracuse University HC Scott Shafer. Slender but strong, Shafer has a strong arm and was very accurate against Union (0-2) a couple weeks ago. The JR QB went 25 for 33 against the (suspect) Dutchmen defense, racking up 265 passing yards and two TDs. Ithaca did try to run the ball (34 carries) but mostly gained their first downs via the air (18 of 24). #33 SO RB Tristan Brown and #24 SO RB Dan Porter got the bulk of the carries (eight and 13, respectively) for a combined 64 yards. Up front the Bombers are led by #71 SR OL and Co-Captain Scott Anderson. Union did have some success with their pass rush, sacking Shafer twice in Week 1.
#2 JR WR Josh Oliver was Shafer's favorite target, catching eight passes for 80 yards. Oliver is a dual threat in that he threw a TD pass against Union for 32 yards. Other receiving weapons for the Bombers are #88 JR TE Kyle Hastings and #11 JR WR Brian Balsamo. Both had five catches and a TD each in Week 1. Hastings is a match up challenge for Hobart given his size (6'4" and 237 lbs).
Defensively Ithaca is led by #94 SR DL and Co-Captain Logan Murphy. #9 SR DB and Co-Captain Malik Morris led the Bombers pass defense with a game high 11 tackles and an interception against Union.
The special teams unit is led by German born #34 SR PK Max Rottenecker (aka "Das Boot"). Rottenecker was one of two on FG's against the Dutchmen, connecting on a 39 yarder and five PATs. A 31 yard attempt was wide right in the Union game.
Keys to the Game:
1. Stop Shafer - Union made Shafer look like an All American so the pressure will be on the Hobart secondary to make plays like they did last Saturday in the win over Endicott. JR CB Todd Collier earned the LL Defensive Player of the Week Award for his two (almost three) INT performance last Saturday.
2. Pass Protect / Move the Chains - The Hobart OL struggled picking up blitzes against Endicott, allowing two sacks, forcing SO QB Shane Sweeney's first career INT and only converting five of 14 third down conversions (and were 0 for two on fourth down). Ithaca dominated time of possession (35 to 25 minutes, effectively) against Union so Hobart will need to keep their offense on the field and convert on key plays (like this play that earned the D3football.com Play of the Week thanks to an awesome effort by JR RB Brad Burns).
3. Special Teams - save for the awesome JR WR Sean Cunningham PR TD play, the Statesmen kicking and special teams game was off last Saturday. The bad punt snap can't happen again because with an offense like Ithaca's it's a guaranteed six point play. Coverage on returns needs to improve and the angle kicks need to avoid ending up out of bounds and giving the Bombers extra yards. "Das Boot" is a solid kicker but not automatic. The Statesmen will need to try and hold Ithaca to FGs and/or win the battle of field position.
Prediction
If you've followed this blog, you know I've almost never picked against Hobart, at least certainly not in the last four seasons. Exactly four years ago I did in this post which ended up with the Statesmen lighting up a favored Empire 8 team by 36. That was my intention again when I picked Ithaca 17-13 on In The HuddLLe last Sunday night. While I think my co-host Frank Rossi's pick of Hobart winning 24-20 is probably more accurate, I'm sure it'll be a close game either way.
It's a big test for both clubs and will garner a lot of local and national attention. The loser's season isn't over because of the automatic qualifier / conference opportunity, but it will sting from a bragging rights perspective.
The Statesmen are riding a 32 game regular season winning streak. Ithaca is probably the one team that could break it if Hobart plays like they did against Endicott.
I'll be tuning in to WEOS at 12:40 PM and can't wait to see how this one turns out.
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