Week 4 - US Merchant Marine Game Preview

The Hobart College Statesmen will travel to Kings Point, NY on Long Island this weekend for their 2015 Liberty League opener against the United States Merchant Marine Academy Mariners. The Mariners (1-1) are coming off the emotional high of a 14-3 Secretaries Cup victory over their rivals Coast Guard (1-2) and a low of a lopsided 24-14 loss to the SUNY-Maritime Privateers (2-1) where they were out gained 313 to 175 total yards.

The Statesmen (2-1) have never lost to the Mariners since the Merchant Marine joined the LL as an affiliate for football in 2004. Hobart leads the all-time series 11-4 and won last year's contest at Boswell Field in convincing fashion, 42-7.

The once maligned Mariner defense seems to have improved after finishing dead last in almost every key defensive category in 2014. Their LB corps has improved and they boast two of the better DBs in the LL in #6 SR DB Skyler Stone (two INTs so far) and #20 JR DB Patrick Keyes (2nd team All-Conference selection last year).

Scouting the Merchant Marine

The key to the Mariners' triple option rushing attack is #11 SR QB Matthew McDaniels. McDaniels gained 190 yards and one TD so far this season and is ranked ninth in the LL with a 114.5 YPG average. Complimenting him is #14 SO FB Luke Tiefenthaler who's rushed for 222 yards and one TD.

Leading the defense is #49 JR LB Josh Woodburn with 22 total tackles and three sacks.

The special teams unit has a strong return man in #7 SO RB Robert Moore with a LL high 30 YPR average. #98 SO PK Eric Swayze averages a solid 35.9 average net in the kicking game on punts.

Keys to the Game

1. Resurgence - If I told you in the preseason that the Hobart-USMMA game would be between the two worst total and scoring offenses in the LL you'd probably think I was crazy. As it stands Hobart comes into this one as the seventh rated scoring (21 PPG) and last ranked total offense (254.3 YPG) in the LL. The Mariners aren't much better averaging 271 YPG and a LL low 14 PPG. That said it's on the Hobart OL to regain control of the LOS and dominate what is an undersized Mariner DL. To their credit, the Merchant Marine is the third rated total defense only allowing 237.5 YPG and is second in scoring "D" only allowing 13.5 PPG.

2. DTR - Both teams in this game should be "DTR" (or "Down to Run") given each team's respective strengths. The Mariners have a very strong secondary and their pass defense has been stingy only 117 YPG. The Merchant Marine's third ranked (251.5 YPG) rushing offense will crash into Hobart's top ranked (58 YPG) rushing and total (186 YPG) defense Saturday.

3. Third down conversions - The Statesmen can really control this game if they can exploit a Mariner weakness which is their league low 27.3% third down conversion percentage. Hobart is first in the LL holding opponents to a 15.9% conversion rate.

4. Turnovers - The Statesmen committed six turnovers against Ithaca (2-0). Enough said.

Prediction:

I like the Statesmen to get back on track versus a tough, but beatable Mariner squad. It'll be a lower scoring affair unless the Hobart "D" collects some turnovers of their own. Regardless, I'll take Hobart to win, 28-7.

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